Following an eventful first 2 weeks of March Madness action, we are down from 64 to just 4 teams. That’s right, all roads have led to the Final Four, and this year’s installment features a pair of tremendous games on each side of the bracket. There’s lots to look forward to and find value in, so let’s take a look at my best bets for April 4. I’m on an 8-2 run in my March Madness best bets column over the last 2 weeks, so let’s keep that momentum going with my college basketball predictions for Saturday’s Final Four slate. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
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March Madness Final Four best bets: Arizona Wildcats ML over Michigan Wolverines (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Arizona ML (+100)
These teams have been the class of college basketball for the vast majority of the season, and both sides have shown their quality en route to fairly dominant runs to this year’s installment of the Final Four in Indianapolis. This game is priced competitively and oddsmakers are certainly expecting a barnburner in a showdown between the top 2 teams on both KenPom and BartTorvik. Given that this is a real clash of the titans, there’s only so much that is really separating the top teams in the sport. Ultimately, I strongly believed that Arizona was the best team in the nation heading into the postseason, and my thoughts haven’t changed heading into this weekend’s matchup. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the plus-money price we’re getting with the Wildcats on Saturday.
The biggest potential concern that I’d have with backing Arizona in this one is the math advantage that Michigan could have in this game, as the Wolverines attempt far more threes than their counterparts. If Michigan is knocking down shots from beyond the arc, it’s going to be extremely difficult for any team to hang with an offense of this caliber. However, Michigan is shooting nearly 45% from deep in this tournament and Arizona boasts a strong 3-point defense, so we can expect some regression from the Wolverines on that front. Furthermore, the Wildcats are a supremely elite team in a myriad of areas, and Tommy Lloyd’s team should hold advantages when it comes to turnover margin (where Michigan is a below average unit), rebounding margin and free-throw rate.
Its clear that Arizona does a lot of the little things at an elite level, but the Wildcats also have a few key edges that should come into play in this matchup. Both teams certainly want to get out and run, and we’ve seen each program use their prowess in transition to great success in this tournament. In a game where the rubber will really hit the road and victory will likely be decided by the slimmest of margins, getting stops in transition will matter, and Arizona has already done an excellent job of that in March, specifically against the likes of Arkansas and Utah State. The Wildcats frontcourt is also uniquely suited to slow down a Michigan interior that has been one of the most efficient units in the paint all season long.
The twin towers of Aday Mara and Yaxel Lendenborg command so much defensive attention that it often leads to open shooters for the Wolverines on the perimeter. But with Motiejus Krivas, Koa Peat, Tobe Awaka and Ivan Karchenkov forming a very formidable defensive frontcourt presence, the water could get shut off a bit from the outside, as the Arizona guards should stay home on shooters. Speaking of the guards, the Wildcats clearly have the superior backcourt in this game, and there should be opportunities for Brayden Burries to get to his spots and hit shots from the perimeter. And when crunch time arrives, there are very few players I’d rather have on both ends than Jaden Bradley — a proven closer when the lights are brightest. Arizona is the slightly better team for my money, so I’ll gladly take the Wildcats as short underdogs in what should be a game for the ages.
Don’t miss our full Michigan vs Arizona prediction
March Madness Final Four best bets: Alex Karaban (UConn) over 12.5 points (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
To conclude my best bets on Saturday, I’m opting to go with a player prop in this matchup between Illinois and UConn. UConn has raised its level in March, as they typically have under Danny Hurley in recent seasons. Hurley is likely the best postseason coach in the sport at the moment, and he is now 17-1 against the spread over his last 18 NCAA Tournament games following last week’s extraordinary comeback victory over Duke to advance to this point. While I do lean in UConn’s direction as the side in this contest, I can’t quite get there at the current number. Instead, I’ll be targeting one of the Huskies most important players to make a serious impact in what could be his final collegiate game.
UConn has a blend of experienced veterans and younger players, but Alex Karaban is the de-facto coach on the floor for Hurley and this Huskies staff. Having already been a real contributor on multiple championship teams, the 23-year-old won’t be fazed by the enormity of the moment on Saturday, and he should be poised for a bounce-back effort following a terrible shooting display against Duke. Even when factoring in that performance, Karaban is still in the midst of a very strong postseason, as he’s averaging nearly 18 points per game while shooting over 50% from the floor for the tournament. Look for the senior to knock down a couple of outside shots en route to clearing this point total.
Read our expert’s full UConn vs Illinois prediction
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