March Madness Final Four mega parlay (+1140 odds): Baylor by a million

Baylor Bears players and staff huddle after defeating the Villanova Wildcats during the Sweet 16 of the 2021 NCAA Tournament at Hinkle Fieldhouse
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Andrew Ortenberg

NCAAB · 1 year ago

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I'm an editor here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

The Elite Eight certainly didn’t disappoint, and we’re now full steam ahead into the Final Four. That’s right, we’re back for the final weekend of March Madness, where we’re counting on a lopsided Baylor victory. The NCAA Tournament only comes once a year, why not celebrate the special occasion by going for a big payday?

We’re going big and bold, so let’s not waste any more time. We’re diving in, but don’t forget to check out our picks for the side and total on every March Madness game.

Baylor -10 alternate spread (+210)

UCLA vs. Gonzaga alt total under 135 (+300)

Parlay odds: +1140

Let’s break down each of the two legs one by one.

Baylor -10 alternate spread (+210)

I don’t think this game is going to be particularly close. You’ve got to feel happy for Kelvin Sampson for getting Houston to the Final Four, but they’ve caught a lot of breaks along the way. How often does a team get to the Final Four without ever having to play a single-digit seed? The Cougars just got lucky to play Syracuse in the Sweet 16 and then Oregon State in the Elite Eight. The best team they’ve played all tournament has probably been Rutgers, and it took a complete meltdown and choke in the final minute just for them to squeak past the tenth-seeded Scarlet Knights.

Baylor on the other hand has looked very impressive, completely smothering Arkansas, Villanova, and Wisconsin in their past three games. They won each of those games by at least nine points, and I don’t see why this one will be any different. Houston relies heavily on their defense, and they’ve been able to bully teams so far that are inferior athletically. That certainly won’t be the case against Baylor, and the Cougars are going to need to score consistently to keep up. So far, they haven’t shown the ability to do that.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Cougars vs. Baylor Bears.

UCLA vs. Gonzaga alt total under 135 (+300)

I think there’s a good chance this game is a lot lower scoring than people think. The under went 9-3 across all Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games, which I think is a pretty clear indicator that it gets harder to score as the stakes get higher. UCLA knows they aren’t going to win a shootout against Gonzaga, so I think head coach Mick Cronin is going to try to play slower than ever and make this as low a possession game as possible to increase variance.

In UCLA’s Elite Eight victory over Michigan, the final score was 51-49. Gonzaga obviously has a historic offense, but if there’s any team that can slow them down just a bit it’s UCLA with the intensity they’ve been playing with. Gonzaga’s defense also hasn’t been given enough credit, as they only gave up 65 and 66 points in their last two games against really good Creighton and USC offenses respectively. UCLA plays at a much slower pace than either of those teams do, so I think there’s a good chance they get held below 60 here.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for UCLA Bruins vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Pickswise is the home of March Madness Predictions. Check out all of our March Madness Picks, including daily March Madness Parlays throughout the NCAA Tournament.

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