After a long and unpredictable college basketball season, the full 68-team bracket is out and the madness is finally here! Most college hoops fans would probably define the “madness” portion of March Madness as starting on Thursday, but we have 4 games that will help fill the 48 hours before the greatest 2 days in collegiate sports. Before the Round of 64 tips off, we have the First Four to look forward to, so let’s take a look at our best bets for the action in Dayton on March 17 and 18.
Winning money in these games counts the same as it would on Thursday and Friday, so let’s get into my college basketball predictions for the First Four games. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
NC State Wolfpack ML over Texas Longhorns (-104)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
Tuesday’s marquee First Four game features a pair of teams that have been extremely disappointing to this point, but that doesn’t mean we can’t find value in a wager on NC State in this spot. Will Wade’s team has dramatically underperformed compared to expectations this season, but the Wolfpack do have the advantage of reviewing the tape and making adjustments after playing Texas earlier this season and suffering a loss in that matchup back in November. Furthermore, NC State has a very veteran group that has plenty of experience in the NCAA tournament, including a couple of key players from last season’s McNeese State squad that knocked off Clemson in the Round of 64.
The Wolfpack are an offense-first operation, and they should be able to replicate at least a somewhat similar level of success as their 97-point effort against Texas back in the nonconference portion of the season. NC State’s microwave offense has the ability to hit a ton of threes (ranked 9th in 3-point percentage per BartTorvik), while also not turning the ball over (8th in turnover percentage) and remaining efficient. Conversely, the Longhorns defense has been abysmal since February 1 (ranked 151st in adjusted efficiency and 309th in 3-point defense), and that doesn’t bode well against an offense of this caliber. I’ll take NC State on Tuesday.
Read our full Texas vs NC State prediction
Miami (OH) RedHawks +7.5 vs SMU Mustangs (-115)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to Miami (OH) +6.5
For my second First Four best bet, we head to Wednesday’s slate for a matchup between the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks and SMU Mustangs. While I can understand the case on paper for why Miami (OH) has been looked at with skepticism, this is a pretty disrespectful maneuver from the selection committee to put a 31-1 team in a First Four play-in game. The market was initially quick to bet SMU, but we’ve seen plenty of Miami money come in over the last 24 hours, and I’m in agreement with the move. While their resume and defensive metrics aren’t anything to write home about, this is a veteran, battle tested team that has thrived in games decided by single digits this season. That alone makes them a pretty attractive wager as an underdog here.
On the other side, SMU has completely limped into the NCAA tournament field, with the Mustangs dropping 5 of their last 6 games heading into this week. Andy Enfield’s squad is not known for its defensive prowess (ranked 96th in adjusted efficiency), and I fully expect them to have trouble slowing down a very balanced Miami attack that consistently emphasizes turning down a good shot for a great shot. It’s also worth mentioning that senior guard B.J. Edwards is likely not going to be fully healthy for the Mustangs in this one, and he’s the best defender on this roster by a good margin. With that in mind, let’s back the RedHawks to keep things close on Wednesday, and possibly even pull off the upset.
Read our expert’s full Miami OH vs SMU prediction
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