After a long and unpredictable college basketball season, the full 68-team bracket is out and the madness is finally here! Thursday’s slate featured plenty of compelling March Madness action, and the action will keep rolling along with a whopping 16-game slate featuring nearly 13 hours of nonstop college hoops on Friday. There are a ton of matchups to look forward to and find value in, so let’s take a look at my best bets for the action on March 20.
I got off to a 2-1 start on Thursday with my best bets, so let’s get keep that momentum going with my college basketball predictions for Friday’s loaded slate. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
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March Madness best bet: Santa Clara Broncos +3.5 vs Kentucky Wildcats (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to Santa Clara +3
Santa Clara is a team that I’ve been high on all season long, and the Broncos consistently played up to their competition level in the non-conference portion of the schedule. In fact, Herb Sendek’s team knocked off the likes of Minnesota, Xavier, Nevada and McNeese State, while losing to St. Louis by just 1 point. Santa Clara boasts one of the best offenses at the mid-major level, with the Broncos ranking inside the top 15 in adjusted efficiency and top 40 in 2-point percentage (BartTorvik). This is a team that also generates offensive rebounds at an elite level (ranked 19th nationally) and should be able to thrive against a Kentucky defense that is outside the top 150 in rebounding rate and is an abysmal 233rd in free-throw rate allowed on the season.
On the other side, this still doesn’t profile as a good matchup for Mark Pope’s team. For starters, Santa Clara’s pressure defense should be able to force the Kentucky offense into some turnovers, which is an issue the Wildcats have struggled with all season. If the pace of this game starts to increase, that also favors a Santa Clara team that likes to get out and run in order to generate early offense. I do have some concerns with the Broncos’ high foul rate, and Kentucky should be able to generate success against the Santa Clara interior defense. However, the Broncos do a pretty decent job of defending the 3-point line, and Kentucky has not shot the ball well from beyond the arc this season. In a game that should come down to the final minutes, I’ll side with the underdog catching over a possession.
Read our full Santa Clara vs Kentucky prediction
NCAA Tournament best bet: Northern Iowa Panthers +10.5 vs St. John’s Red Storm (-105)
Odds taken from game preview published on March 18. Playable to Northern Iowa +9.5
For my second best bet on Friday, let’s head to the East Region for a matchup that could be a lot closer than what oddsmakers project. Led by an elite perimeter defense (ranked 3rd in 3-point percentage allowed per BartTorvik), Northern Iowa has won 10 of its last 13 games and the Panthers playing at a top 40 level nationally over the last 6 weeks. On offense, Ben Jacobson’s team is extremely comfortable playing at a deliberate pace, as the Panthers are ranked 364th in adjusted tempo and consistently look to grind out quality shots late in the clock. That profiles well for an underdog in a tournament setting, as teams that shorten the game and put a massive emphasis on each possession generally keep their games close against higher-seeded opponents.
As for the higher seed, the Red Storm have struggled mightily on offense all season long, with Rick Pitino’s team sitting at 191st in effective field goal percentage, 187th in 2-point percentage and a whopping 214th in 3-point percentage (BartTorvik). That doesn’t bode well against an excellent Panthers defense that is fundamentally sound and won’t commit fouls to bail St. John’s out of bad possessions. If the Red Storm are not able to get out in transition and generate easy buckets, it could be a long day for this extremely inconsistent offense. All things considered, this has all the makings of a defensive struggle, so I’ll grab the points with Northern Iowa.
Read our expert’s full Northern Iowa vs St. John’s prediction
NCAA Tournament prediction: Akron Zips +8.5 vs Texas Tech Red Raiders (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Akron +7.5
For my final best bet on Friday’s slate, let’s target another double-digit seed to keep things respectable against an overvalued higher seed. Akron has been in this spot before, as this is the third straight year that John Groce’s side has made the Big Dance, and they should be able to learn from their previous experiences in this setting. Led by Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott in the backcourt, the Zips have veteran leaders all over the floor and an offense that has the capability to do major damage both from the perimeter and in the paint. Akron boasts one of the most efficient mid-major offenses inside of 15 feet, and the Zips can also knock down outside shots at nearly a 40% clip. There aren’t many holes in this offense, which gives Akron a high floor in this one.
On the other side, it’s also worth mentioning that while Texas Tech has played admirably without the services of JT Toppin (out for the season with a torn ACL), the Red Raiders have now become incredibly reliant on their backcourt play and outside shooters. To their credit, Grant McCasland’s team has shot the lights out from beyond the arc in recent weeks, but that just signals to me that regression is certainly coming due for a team that is top 10 in both 3-point rate and 3-point percentage over the last month. If Texas Tech has a less-than-stellar day from deep, that creates a real opportunity for Akron to keep things very close and potentially spring the upset.
Read our full Akron vs Texas Tech prediction
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