After a long and unpredictable college basketball season, the full 68-team bracket is out and the madness is finally here! After a quartet of exciting First Four games to wet our appetite, the action will truly get underway with a whopping 16-game slate featuring nearly 13 hours of nonstop college hoops on Thursday. I couldn’t be more excited for this edition of March Madness to finally get underway, so let’s take a look at my best bets for the action on March 19.
Our expert’s got off to a 2-0 start in the First Four on Tuesday, so let’s get keep that momentum going with my college basketball predictions for Thursday’s loaded slate. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
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March Madness best bet: USF Bulls +6.5 vs Louisville Cardinals (-120)
Odds taken from game preview published on March 16. Playable to South Florida +4.5
One of the first games on Thursday’s slate comes in the East Region between Louisville and South Florida in what should be a battle of teams that mirror each other a bit in certain areas. The Bulls are a side that I’ve enjoyed backing down the stretch, having won 11 straight games to close the season, with most of those victories coming by double-digits. Conversely, Louisville is on the opposite end of the spectrum, having dropped 4 of its last 8 games after bowing out in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. There are some serious warning signs that suggest the Cardinals should be on upset alert, and this is a solid spot to take a shot on USF in a matchup where they should hold some crucial edges.
The Bulls are unlike some of the other popular mid-major picks that you’ll see in many brackets this time of year, and it’s largely due to the fact that their roster is littered with high-major transfers and veteran players who are not new to this sort of high-pressure situation. Bryan Hodgson’s team starts a trio of excellent seniors, including Izaiyah Nelson — the AAC Player of the Year. The Bulls typically employ a 7-man rotation, and 5 of those players are upperclassmen who have played dozens of games at this level. There won’t be an intimidation factor in this game, and given the fact that South Florida has been a top-35 team since February 1 per BartTorvik, the Bulls are certainly trending in a better direction compared to their opponent.
It all starts on defense, with South Florida sitting inside the top 40 in adjusted efficiency and 24th in two-point percentage defense on the year. On offense, the Bulls are a dominant unit in transition in league play, and we saw them use that comfort of playing at a very fast tempo to great advantage during the conference tournament. Furthermore, South Florida should be very competitive in the shot volume battle in this matchup, seeing as it is ranked sixth in offensive rebounding percentage on the season, while Louisville sits at 168th over the last 2 months in that same statistic (BartTorvik). On the other side, Louisville has struggled away from home all season long, and with star guard Mikel Brown Jr. set to miss this game, the Cardinals offense should take a noticeable hit. All things considered, I like the matchup for South Florida and think the Bulls can spring the upset.
Read our full South Florida vs Louisville prediction
NCAA Tournament best bet: VCU Rams ML over North Carolina Tar Heels (+130)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +110.
For my second best bet on Thursday, we head to Greenville, South Carolina for a matchup between the VCU Rams and North Carolina Tar Heels. Not only does this game include a Rams team that I was interested in backing heading into this week’s action, but it also features a Tar Heels team that I’ve been eager to fade in this tournament. North Carolina hasn’t been the same team since freshman phenom Caleb Wilson suffered a season-ending hand injury back in February, and the Tar Heels prospects look to be pretty slim without Wilson in the lineup for the postseason. Not only is North Carolina not nearly the same on offense, but Hubert Davis’ group has been worse on defense as well, with their defensive efficiency and 3-point defense suffering in his absence.
On the other side, VCU is absolutely rolling heading into the Big Dance, having won 6 straight games and covering the spread in 3 of its last 4 games away from home. As a unit, the Rams are playing at a top 25 level over that same span, and the identity of this team is something that is sustainable for March. After all, VCU wants to protect the paint with its strong interior defense, while getting to the free-throw line at a high rate on the other side of the ball. This style of play makes it so that the Rams could have a below average shooting day and still be highly competitive in this game thanks to their excellent defense and veteran guards leading the way. VCU has been the considerably better team in recent weeks, so I’ll take the value with the Rams as short underdogs in this one.
Read our expert’s full VCU vs North Carolina prediction
NCAA Tournament prediction: Troy Trojans +13.5 vs Nebraska Cornhuskers (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Troy +12.5
For my final best bet on Thursday’s slate, let’s target another double digit seed to keep things respectable against an overvalued name brand. To its credit, Nebraska in the midst of a very strong season and certainly deserves plaudits for a 26-6 record. However, the Cornhuskers are still a team that I was hoping to fade in March, and they’ll be playing a Troy team that has a myriad of impressive victories this season, including wins over San Diego State, Akron and Furman. With that in mind, this is a game that profiles as one to watch for when considering any possible longshot upsets in the opening round.
Games involving Nebraska typically involve a ton of 3-point variance, as the Cornhuskers are 11th nationally in 3-point attempt rate (BartTorvik), and they also allowed one of the highest 3-point attempt rates on the other side of the ball. Fred Hoiberg’s team is not an overwhelmingly dominant side from an athleticism standpoint, so I don’t expect them to overwhelm Troy physically in this game. The Trojans are a veteran group that fit the profile of an upset-minded team thanks to their slow pace of play (ranked 303rd in adjusted tempo), high 3-point attempt rate, strong presence on the glass and 3-point defense. While they likely won’t win the game outright, Troy is one of my favorite underdogs catching double-digits in the Round of 64.
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