Matt Marquart
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All across the country right now, people are feverishly filling out their NCAA Tournament brackets for March Madness and asking their friends and family “Who do you have in the Final Four?” In this article, we will be analyzing the Final Four futures markets to see where value may lie in this year’s tournament. Once we review the odds and top contenders to reach the Final Four in Phoenix, we will have a best bet for a team to win their region, as well as a potential longshot to consider. Let’s first take a look at the odds to make the Final Four.
2024 March Madness Final Four Odds and Favorites
Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook and available at the time of publishing.
- UConn -120
- Houston +125
- Purdue +150
- Arizona +260
- North Carolina +300
- Tennessee +350
- Auburn +375
- Iowa State +425
- Creighton +550
- Kentucky +550
As you can see, Connecticut is the only team that does not have plus-money odds to reach the Final Four. Seeing UConn atop the odds market is not surprising given the fact that they are the number one overall seed and the top-ranked team in KenPom’s efficiency rankings, but it might be surprising that you need to lay money to bet on the Huskies. UConn’s region is very tough, as it is filled with two other teams ranked among the top 10 odds. Auburn (+375) could face Connecticut in the Sweet 16, while Iowa State (+425) could be their matchup in the Elite Eight.
Two of the other #1 seeds are the favorites to win their region, with Houston (+125) and Purdue (+150) right behind UConn in the odds list. Houston has one of the best defenses in the country and was KenPom’s top-rated team for the majority of the year. Purdue will be looking to exorcize the demons of losing to #16 seed Fairleigh-Dickinson last season and has arguably the easiest path to the Final Four, as they are the only #1 seed without the possibility of facing a KenPom top-10 team until the Elite Eight.
The final #1 seed is North Carolina, whose odds of +300 are longer than that of the #2 seed in their region, Arizona (+260). The remaining teams listed in the top 10 all carry odds of less than 6/1 and certainly have a strong chance to reach the Final Four.
Find out our expert’s March Madness predictions for who wins this year’s NCAA Tournament, including a +4000 longshot!
March Madness Final Four Best Bet: Baylor (+750)
For my Final Four best bet, I am taking the Baylor Bears at +750 to reach the Final Four. Baylor is not listed in the top 10 outlined above, but the draw for Baylor is quite good, in my opinion. As mentioned in the previous section, North Carolina is perceived as the weakest of the #1 seeds. Baylor is a 13.5-point favorite in their opening matchup against Colgate (I like the Bears to cover this number) and would face the winner of Clemson and New Mexico in the second round. Depending on your viewpoint, Baylor would either face the strongest #11 seed or the weakest #6 seed, as #11 seed New Mexico is favored over Clemson. If they were to advance to the Sweet 16, Baylor would likely face Arizona which would be a difficult game, but certainly one that Baylor could win.
Baylor ranks 6th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and has 5 players who shoot at least 34 percent from beyond the arc. The defense is a worry, but Baylor’s odds of +750 compared to Arizona’s of +260 is too big of a gap, in my opinion.
March Madness Final Four longshot pick: Gonzaga (+1200)
For my longshot pick to reach the Final Four, I am going with the Gonzaga Bulldogs at +1200. Gonzaga is the #4 seed in the Midwest Region, which means Purdue would almost certainly stand in the way of a trip to Phoenix. Gonzaga played Purdue back in November during the Maui Invitational, with Purdue getting the 73-63 win. However, Gonzaga shot just 6-of-32 from beyond the arc in that game. The Bulldogs will need to get past a strong mid-major with McNeese State in the First Round, followed by a matchup with the winner of Kansas and Samford. Kansas enters the NCAA Tournament dealing with some injuries to their key players and Gonzaga would possibly be a slight favorite if they were to meet the Jayhawks. Purdue is certainly the favorite to come out of this region but at +1200, there are worse bets than taking a KenPom top-15 team in Gonzaga to reach the Final Four.
Now check out our March Madness picks for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
