After a highly entertaining opening day of March Madness action that featured plenty of compelling college hoops, Friday’s slate was largely a letdown. However, it did feature one of the best NCAA Tournament games in recent years, as Kentucky tied the game on a miraculous 3-pointer at the buzzer and ultimately prevailed over Santa Clara in overtime. Now, Saturday marks the start of the Round of 32 and the 8-game slate features a number of fascinating matchups across each region. There are a ton of games to look forward to and find value in, so let’s take a look at my best bets for March 21.
Friday was a difficult day for my best bets (including the aforementioned Santa Clara loss), so let’s bounce back with my college basketball predictions for Saturday’s loaded slate. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
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March Madness best bet: Houston Cougars -9.5 over Texas A&M Aggies (-110)
Odds available at Kalshi at time of publishing. Playable to Houston -10.5
To kick off our best bets on Saturday, let’s look at this matchup between in-state foes as the Houston Cougars are set to do battle with the Texas A&M Aggies. Based off what we just saw on Thursday, I can understand the case for backing Texas A&M at this number. After all, the Houston offense can be prone to extended scoring droughts and the Aggies are fresh off a dominant victory over a Saint Mary’s team that plays a somewhat similar defense-focused style to what the Cougars focus on. However, that performance was more about Saint Mary’s and the Gaels’ complete lack of athleticism than what the Aggies were bringing to the table, specifically on the defensive side of the ball.
Compared to most of its opponents this season, Houston is a much tougher matchup for this Texas A&M. The Aggies thrive on outworking the opponent and creating chaos, but they won’t be able to accomplish that against a Cougars team that is elite at taking care of the basketball (5th in turnover rate) and generating offense late in the shot clock. More importantly, Kelvin Sampson’s team consistently dominates the glass and should hold a massive edge on the offensive boards against an Aggies defense that is 280th in defensive rebounding percentage (BartTorvik). Ultimately, Texas A&M is well outside the top 200 in 2-point percentage defense, and we can expect Kingston Flemings and the Houston offense to have enough to win this game by double digits.
Read our full Texas A&M vs Houston prediction
NCAA Tournament best bet: Arkansas Razorbacks -11.5 over High Point Panthers (-105)
Odds widely available at time of publishing. Playable to Arkansas -12.Â
For my second best bet on Saturday, let’s head to the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon for a matchup between the Arkansas Razorbacks and High Point Panthers. High Point is one of the only true “Cinderella stories” remaining after an opening round that featured plenty of favorites winning in convincing fashion. The Panthers won as a double-digit underdog against a red-hot Wisconsin team on Thursday, and the market appears to be overreacting a bit to that result. This was a line that I expected to come out around 13, so it’s hard to ignore the point or so of value we’re getting with the Razorbacks, who are coming off a dominant victory of their own against Hawaii.
While High Point is certainly the darling of the tournament to this point, it’s important to remember that the Panthers were trailing for the majority of the second-half and appeared to be out of the game, before a late flurry of 3-pointers and a couple of pivotal mistakes by the Badgers in the final minute turned a victory into a defeat. The Panthers defense still didn’t do much to slow down Wisconsin, and I wouldn’t expect that to change in this matchup, especially since Arkansas is the best offense in the nation at avoiding turnovers. Darius Acuff Jr., Maleek Thomas and the rest of the Hogs should dominate this matchup against a very weak High Point defense (138th in adjusted efficiency) that won’t be able to create enough havoc to keep this one close.
Read our expert’s full High Point vs Arkansas prediction
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