After a pretty muted opening round of March Madness action, the round of 32 provided plenty of excitement and entertainment across the course of 12 hours of college hoops, including a couple of instant classics over the weekend. Now, Friday marks the conclusion of the Sweet 16 and the 4-game slate features a number of fascinating matchups across the East and Midwest Regions. There are a number of games to look forward to and find value in, so let’s take a look at my best bets for March 27.
I bounced back with a 2-0 day in my best bets column last Sunday, so let’s keep that momentum going with my college basketball predictions for Friday’s loaded slate. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
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NCAA Tournament best bet: Michigan Wolverines -8.5 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-112)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
To tip off my best bets on Friday, I’ll target a matchup between Alabama and Michigan. To their credit, the Crimson Tide have won each of their first 2 postseason games in fairly comfortable fashion, and they have been able to do so without the services of point guard Aden Holloway, who was suspended prior to the tournament. However, this is a much tougher matchup for Alabama given that the Crimson Tide really struggle in the shot volume department and will likely be operating at a massive disadvantage against a Michigan team that has a pair of elite big men that should own the glass and dominate the interior. If Nate Oats’ team is unable to compete on the boards, it could be a long night for Alabama.
As for the Wolverines, they’ll have to be stingy in their perimeter defense against the Crimson Tide, especially given that Alabama’s path to victory in this game is one that exclusively relies on knocking down a ton of threes. Fortunately for Michigan, Dusty May’s team is excellent in all areas, including defending the perimeter (4th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 30th in 3-point percentage allowed). Alabama will certainly get up plenty of threes in this game, but don’t expect the Crimson Tide to have one of their red-hot shooting days, and their transition defense will likely suffer if they start to miss consistently from beyond the arc. Michigan should ultimately pull away in the second half, so I’ll lay the points with the Wolverines on Friday.
Read our expert’s full Alabama vs Michigan prediction
March Madness best bet: UConn Huskies ML over Michigan State Spartans (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
For my second best bet, let’s look at this matchup between Michigan State and UConn. This is a battle between a couple of excellent postseason coaches, but Danny Hurley has been the best NCAA Tournament coach in the sport over the last few seasons, and I expect his team to prevail in what should be a close contest from start to finish. Not only is UConn 15-1 against the spread over its last 16 tournament games, but the Huskies are very well equipped to slow down the Michigan State offense and create a game script that favors the #2 seed.
For starters, UConn ranks in the 91st percentile in transition defense, which is the most important aspect of defending a Spartans offense that is incredibly effective in transition, ranking inside the top 20 percentile in efficiency and frequency. The Huskies have been excellent on the glass in this tournament, thanks in large part to the contributions of Taris Reed Jr, who has a whopping 40 rebounds through the first 2 games of this tournament. As long as Hurley’s group is able to keep the Spartans in check on the boards, I expect them to advance, especially since Michigan State is due for some significant regression from beyond the arc after shooting nearly 50% over its last 3 games. This should be a game that is played at a steady, deliberate pace and I’ll trust the Huskies to survive and advance.
Check out our Sweet 16 parlay picks for Friday’s action at +931 odds!
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