After a pretty muted opening round of March Madness action, the Round of 32 provided plenty of excitement and entertainment across the course of 12 hours of college goops, including a couple of instant classics over the weekend. Now, Thursday marks the start of the Sweet 16 and the 4-game slate features a number of fascinating matchups across the South and West Regions. There are a number of games to look forward to and find value in, so let’s take a look at my best bets for March 26.
I bounced back with a 2-0 day in my best bets column last Sunday, so let’s keep that momentum going with my college basketball predictions for Thursday’s loaded slate. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our March Madness picks for expert analysis and bets for EVERY game of the NCAA Tournament!
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March Madness best bet: Purdue Boilermakers -6.5 over Texas Longhorns (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to Purdue -7.5
To kick off our best bets on Thursday, let’s look at this matchup between the Texas and Purdue. There’s a lot to like about the Boilermakers in this game, especially given how their offense has looked in this tournament. Not only has Purdue shot the ball extremely well and looks like a very confident unit at the moment, the Boilermakers have averaged 92 points in the NCAA Tournament despite the fact that All-American point guard Braden Smith has not played well at all to this point. We can expect Smith to play up his standard on Thursday against a Texas defense (92nd in adjusted efficiency, 350th in turnovers forced) that plays a ton of drop coverage and shouldn’t have many answers for Matt Painter’s offense.
As for the Longhorns, Sean Miller’s team certainly deserves some credit for reaching the second weekend, but it’s important to consider the level of competition they faced during this run and the circumstances surrounding those games. After all, Texas knocked off a BYU team that was without Richie Saunders and a Gonzaga team that was without Braden Huff — a pair of players that are vitally important to their respective teams. It goes without saying that this Purdue offense (1st in adjusted efficiency, 6th in 3-point percentage, 9th in effective field goal percentage) is a much different animal and should be a matchup nightmare for the drop-heavy Texas defense. I’ll lay the points with the Boilermakers in this one.
NCAA Tournament best bet: Arizona Wildcats -7.5 over Arkansas Razorbacks (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to Arizona -8.
For my second best bet, I’ll target a matchup between the Arkansas Razorbacks and Arizona Wildcats. This is another instance where I’m siding with a heavy favorite in a game that appears to be a pretty significant mismatch in a number of areas. While John Calipari deserves a lot of respect as an underdog in March, this is not a matchup that profiles well for his team. For starters, Arizona is elite at defending the rim (ranked 2nd in 2-point percentage defense), which will certainly come in handy against the likes of Darius Acuff Jr. and Maleek Thomas. The Wildcats are also one of the best rebounding teams in the nation, and they should be able to crush Arkansas on the glass and dominate the shot volume battle. That doesn’t bode well for an underdog in this type of setting.
In addition to Arizona’s prowess on the boards and on defense, Tommy Lloyd’s offense should be able to slice and dice its way through an Arkansas defense that has been very poor at stopping drives to the basket all season long (15th percentile rim defense, ranked 275th in 2-point percentage defense per BartTorvik). Simply put, you can get to the rim and score on Arkansas all game long, and Arizona is a team that will certainly lean into that plan, especially since the Wildcats’ offense is not one that takes many threes. Furthermore, Arizona should be able to limit the transition opportunities for a Razorbacks team that will have to get out and run in order to get early offense against this stout defense. All things considered, this is a nightmare matchup for the underdog, so I’ll lay the wood with the Big 12 champions.
Read our expert’s full Arkansas vs Arizona prediction
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