Against all odds, the Miami Heat have reached the NBA Finals and will look to finish the story and take down the Denver Nuggets. Jimmy Butler led the Heat to an unlikely blowout in Game 7 against the Celtics but Miami must now take on Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, who have looked borderline unstoppable in the NBA playoffs. Denver just swept the Lakers so will be fully rested and that should make the task even more difficult for the Heat.
Who will win the NBA championship? Let’s get into the odds, betting lines and our expert’s predictions for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets.
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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets spread, odds & betting lines
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Point spread: Heat +8.5, Nuggets -8.5
Total points over/under: 219.5 points
Money line odds: Heat +320, Nuggets -405
Don’t miss our Heat vs Nuggets Same Game Parlay at +629 odds
Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets expert picks
Heat vs Nuggets point spread pick: Heat +8.5 (-110)
The Miami Heat begin their quest to become the first team to win the NBA Finals as the 8th seed in Game 1 on Thursday. The Heat have been favored by the oddsmakers only 3 times in their last 10 postseason games, and they open the series against Denver as an 8.5-point underdog. Their series against Boston wasn’t pretty, but in the end they were able to clinch it 4-3 with another heroic performance on the road.
The Heat are 6-4 SU in road games this postseason, which is better than the Nuggets, who are 4-3 SU. Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin led the scoring with 28 and 26 points respectively, but it was defense that got Miami the win as Boston scored just 84 points. It’s hard to say how much Miami has left in the tank after such a grueling series. The Heat’s last win in Denver came way back in 2016 and the Nuggets have owned the head-to-head meetings, going 6-0 ATS/SU over the last 6 games.
Denver is a flawless 8-0 SU in these playoffs at Ball Arena, and if we include the regular season they’ve won 10 in a row in that building. Against the Heat they are 6-1 SU in the last 7 meetings when playing at home, and they won 124-119 when the teams played there in December. The 9-day layoff since beating the Lakers should have done the Nuggets good, but they cannot afford to relax as Miami will be sharp after the huge Game 7 victory in Boston. Nikola Jokic averaged a triple-double against Miami during the regular season, and his matchup against Bam Adebayo will be interesting to watch as he has a big size advantage down low.
Aaron Gordon will have the task of guarding Jimmy Butler, but look for Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to have their time on him. The Nuggets should be able to take Game 1 on their home floor, but them not playing a competitive NBA game for more than a week does worry me a bit, especially since the spread is almost in double digits. Miami has covered in 12 of its last 16 games, so I don’t think this will end in a blowout and I’ll take the Heat to cover the spread.
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Heat vs Nuggets over/under total pick: Over 219.5 points (-110)
It’s really refreshing to see a projected total of 219 points for a Miami Heat game after the line was set at just 203.5 points for their Game 7 against Boston. These teams eclipsed 219 points in both games this regular season and in 5 of their last 7 meetings. Betting on the over returned a profit in the last 5 meetings, while the 3 most recent games saw an average of 231.2 points. We probably won’t see that many points in the series opener, after all this is the playoffs and defense is being played.
I think we could end up in the mid-220s in this game. Miami has gone over the total in 10 of the last 13 road games and in 6 straight against Northwest Division opponents. Despite not playing for more than a week, the Nuggets should be able to assert themselves offensively against a mentally and physically drained Heat team. They own the best offensive rating in this postseason at 119.7 points per 100 possessions, almost 3 points better than the next best team. Miami ranks 5th in offensive rating overall and 3rd in road games. I’m expecting a free-flowing offensive game from both teams, so I’ll back the over.
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