MLB Opening Day mega parlay (+973 odds): No problem for Houston

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) reacts and Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve (27) runs to first base on a home run during the sixth inning at Minute Maid Park.
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Keith Schmelter

MLB· 1 month ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks. Go Sox!

We did it! We made it to the Opening Day of the 2022 MLB season! With so many games ahead, don’t forget to check out all of our picks for all of today’s games.

Here’s the moment we’ve all been waiting for… the Opening Day mega parlay!

Brewers -1.5 (-115)

Astros -1.5 (+180)

Padres -1.5 (+105)

Parlay odds: +973

Let’s break down each of the legs one by one.

Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115) over Chicago Cubs

Corbin Burnes gets the nod as the Opening Day starter. Need I say more? Burnes was incredible in 2021 with a 2.42 ERA and a 2.00 xERA as well as finishing in the top 10% in almost every pitching category. He will face a young Cubs roster that has struggled against Burnes, as Chicago hitters have a .212 xBA and a 39.4% strikeout rate in 66 plate appearances against him.

I think this will be the season that Christian Yelich remembers how to play baseball again. The former MVP has had back-to-back terrible seasons, but facing the slow speed of Kyle Hendricks could jump-start Yelich’s season. Expect Burnes to shut down the Cubs and the Milwaukee offense to score a few off Hendricks.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs

Houston Astros -1.5 (+180) over Los Angeles Angels

The Astros lost Carlos Correa, but the rest of their lineup remains intact. Houston ranked 1st in batting average and on-base percentage against right-handers in 2021 and on Opening Day they will take on two-way threat Shohei Ohtani. I expect some rust from Ohtani, who only pitched 5.2 innings and walked 3 batters and hit another in spring training.

Framber Valdez was limited in spring training, but he made the most of his one start. He pitched 3.0 innings and did not allow a hit or run in only 30 pitches. The key part of his spring training was that he did not allow a walk, which has been Valdez’s biggest weakness since he has had a walk rate above 10% for 3 of his 4 seasons. Back Valdez and the Houston offense to beat the Angels by multiple runs on Opening Day.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels

San Diego Padres -1.5 (+105) over Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks made virtually zero moves this offseason. Besides signing Mark Melancon from the Padres, Arizona did nothing — and therefore weren’t upgraded at all. Ketel Marte and Christian Walker headline the Arizona lineup and they are followed by young and inexperienced hitters that might not hit for a .250 average. They have Madison Bumgarner on the mound, but it’s not 2015 and the southpaw is far past his prime.

Yu Darvish has pitched well against the Diamondbacks in his career with a .235 xBA and a 29.8% strikeout rate in 114 plate appearances against him on the current Arizona roster. He will be backed up by an offense that will be without Fernando Tatis Jr., but Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth should be able to lead the Padres to a multi-run victory on Opening Day.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks

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