Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Friday features a full slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 46-29 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 96-63-6 in this article series this season, including being on a 18-5 run right now. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Friday, July 11. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
MLB best bet: San Francisco Giants ML over Los Angeles Dodgers (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on an NL West matchup between the suddenly reeling Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants. This is one of the great rivalries in baseball, and these teams are trending in opposite directions heading into Friday’s series opener. And while I do think the Dodgers will break up their 6-game losing streak at some point, I don’t see Los Angeles’ offense (5 runs over its last 4 games) succeeding much against Logan Webb on the road. Regardless of venue, Webb has been excellent this season, posting a 2.62 ERA and ground-ball rate that sits in the 90th percentile, while his 27.2% strikeout rate sits inside the top 20th percentile among all qualified starters.
As for the visitors, the Dodgers are opting to go with Dustin May on the mound on Friday, and the gangly right-hander has been all over the place this season. May holds a 4.52 ERA on the year, to go along with a 5.67 ERA in June. And while May did start off the month on a positive note with a strong outing against the lowly White Sox, this Giants team is a totally different animal. Ultimately, I’ll back San Francisco to start off this important series with a victory.
Read our full Dodgers vs Giants prediction for tonight’s game
MLB best bet: Detroit Tigers -1.5 over Seattle Mariners (+110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100.
Our 2nd MLB best bet today takes us to Detroit, where the Tigers are hosting a Mariners team that is coming off a devastating loss at the hands of the Yankees on Thursday. Seattle held a 5-run lead in the 8th inning before surrendering 6 runs over the course of 2.1 innings to drop the series finale in New York and get swept by a fellow playoff contender in the process.
Things could go from bad to worse for the Mariners on Friday, as they’ll now travel to Detroit for a date with the AL-leading Tigers and Tarik Skubal. The AL Cy Young favorite for the 2nd straight season is in the midst of a dominant stretch, which has factored into his 2.02 season-long ERA and 0.81 WHIP, along with a stellar 3.2% walk rate and 33.9% strikeout rate. Look for Skubal’s dominance to continue against a middling Mariners offense that has been inconsistent of late.
On the other side, Seattle is countering with Luis Castillo on the mound, who is coming off one of the best starts of his season against the Pirates. However, Castillo’s underlying metrics are just not as good as his baseline statistics through this point in the campaign. That doesn’t bode well against a Tigers lineup that is ranked 6th in SLG and OPS on the season. With Detroit having the vastly superior starter and a pretty well-rested bullpen, let’s take the Tigers to win by margin in this series opener.
Don’t miss our full Mariners vs Tigers prediction for today
