Caleb Wilfinger
The 2nd half of the 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Friday features a full slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 53-31 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 106-70-7 in this article series this season, including being on a 28-14 run right now. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Friday, July 25. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
MLB best bet: San Diego Padres ML over St. Louis Cardinals (-130)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on a National League battle between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres. Miles Mikolas (5.20 ERA, bottom 10% barrel rate and whiff rate) is a pitcher that I routinely feel confident in fading, and the Cardinals starter has allowed 19 earned runs over his last 19.2 innings pitched. Things won’t get any easier against a Padres lineup that just had a breakout performance in Thursday’s series opener.
On the other side, San Diego starter Nick Pivetta (2.80 ERA, 28% strikeout rate) has been rock solid, allowing just 2 earned runs over his last 5 outings totaling 31.1 innings pitched. Let’s back the Padres at home on Friday.
Lock in tonight’s MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets, featuring Guardians vs Royals
MLB best bet: San Francisco Giants F5 -0.5 over New York Mets (-105)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
Our 2nd MLB best bet today takes us to San Francisco, where the Giants will host the New York Mets. The pitching matchup in this game immediately points me in the direction of the hosts, as San Francisco is sending out its ace in Logan Webb, who has been terrific at home this season. In 2025, Webb is posting a 3.08 ERA and ground-ball rate that sits in the 90th percentile, while his 25.2% strikeout rate sits inside the top 25th percentile among all qualified starters.
As for the visitors, Clay Holmes (4.23 xERA, bottom 30 percentile strikeout rate) is getting the ball for the Mets, and he’s been an easy fade candidate to this point. He also hasn’t reached 6 innings pitched in nearly 2 months of action, and that doesn’t bode well against a Giants offense that has one of the best strikeout rates and walk rates in baseball of late. Look for San Francisco’s lineup to make the difference in the first 5 innings on Friday.
Start the weekend right with our expert’s MLB parlay picks at +578 odds
