Caleb Wilfinger
Happy 4th of July, Pickswise Nation! The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Friday features a full slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 40-26 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 86-60-6 in this article series this season, including being on an 8-2 run right now. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Friday, July 4. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today, with our experts going 62-30 last week to finish up +46.6 units!
MLB best bet: Cincinnati Reds F5 +0.5 over Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on a National League clash between the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies. Winners of 6 of their last 10 games, the visitors are in good form heading into this one, and I’m expecting that to continue in this series opener. Abbott has long been a pitcher I’m high on, and he is currently in good form, holding a 1.79 ERA to go along with an elite 32.6% hard-hit rate. Given his track record on the road this season (1 earned runs in 4 outings), it’s reasonable to suggest that carries over into Friday’s matchup.
On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, a pitcher that I am a bit higher on than the market. However, Luzardo’s batted-ball profile (41.3% hard-hit rate, .253 expected batting average) suggests that he could be in for a fight against a Reds lineup that is one of the better units in the National League. Ultimately, I’ll back Abbott and the upstart Reds to be tied or leading after 5 innings on Friday.
MLB best bet: New York Yankees vs New York Mets Over 9 (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Our 2nd MLB best bet today takes us to the bright lights of the Big Apple, where the Subway Series between the Yankees and Mets is set to take place at Citi Field. Neither of these teams is playing all that well heading into this contest, with the Yankees now sitting in 2nd place in the AL East, while the Mets are just 5-14 over their last 19 games played. A common theme for both teams — especially the Mets — has been futility on the mound, and that should continue here. It doesn’t help matters that Yankees starter Marcus Stroman has atrocious metrics (8.16 ERA, .287 xBA, 13.6% walk rate), and the Mets’ starting pitching hasn’t fared much better of late. Given that these lineups are 2 of the best units in the game, it’s fair to expect that we’ll see some runs in this one.
Read our full Yankees vs Mets prediction for this afternoon’s matchup
