Caleb Wilfinger
The 2nd half of the 2025 MLB season continues rolling along today, and Monday features a full slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 59-38 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 113-84-7 in this article series this season! Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top predictions on Monday, August 4. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
MLB best bet: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 over Baltimore Orioles (+102)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on an interleague matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies. Fading the Orioles has been a consistent winner all season long, and that shouldn’t change in this series opener against one of the best teams in the game. Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo hasn’t been super consistent, but his expected metrics do indicate that he’s due for positive regression (3.63 xERA, 2.98 FIP). He should see plenty of success against an Orioles offense that is floundering at the moment. The reverse is true on the other side, with Philadelphia boasting one of the best lineups in the sport against Cade Povich (5.15 ERA, 6.33 xERA). Let’s back Philadelphia to win by multiple runs on Monday.
Read our full Orioles vs Phillies prediction for tonight
MLB best bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML over Atlanta Braves (-135)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.
Our 2nd MLB best bet today takes us to Atlanta, where I’ll be fading the Braves once again with Erick Fedde on the mound. Fedde has allowed at least 3 runs in 6 straight starts and holds a whopping 5.33 ERA (5.79 ERA, .294 xBA) with 5.6 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per 9 innings. In steps a Brewers offense that has been rolling of late, as Milwaukee leads the league in runs scored on the road this season at 5.7 runs per game. Milwaukee is countering with Quinn Priester (3.27 ERA, 3.60 xERA, top 5 percentile ground-ball rate, 7.5 strikeouts per 9 innings), who should hold an edge against a Braves lineup that appears to be pretty checked out after falling to 16 games below .500 this season. Ultimately, I’ll stick with one of the hottest teams in the sport to get the job done on the road.
Start the new week by checking out our MLB parlay picks for tonight at +889 odds!
