Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Monday features a solid 10-game slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 44-28 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 90-62-6 in this article series this season, including being on a 12-4 run right now. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Monday, July 7. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
MLB best bet: Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Over 7.5 (-125)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on a matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres. This series feels like a massive one for both teams, especially given the form that Arizona has been in of late. The Diamondbacks have been really struggling over the last month, and much of that has been due to their poor performance on the mound. Arizona ranks 26th in team ERA on the season, and given the struggles of its bullpen (5.06 ERA, 1.41 WHIP), the Snakes will surely be looking for more length from starter Zac Gallen in this one. That spells trouble for the Diamondbacks, as Gallen is in the midst of the worst season of his career to this point, posting a 5.45 ERA with some expected metrics (12.4% barrel rate, 47.4% hard-hit rate) that don’t bode well against an improving Padres lineup.
As for the hosts, San Diego is sending out Yu Darvish for the first time in 2025, and while that typically is a good thing for the Padres, Darvish will probably have a pretty short leash in his season debut. Throw in the fact that he struggled a bit in his Triple-A rehab start, and we could see one of the best lineups in baseball get to the veteran right-hander in Monday’s matchup. All things considered, I’ll back the Over to get this series started out West.
Lock in Javan Shouey’s MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets today and go for the quick win
MLB best bet: LA Dodgers F5 ML over Milwaukee Brewers (-135)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
Our second MLB best bet today takes us to Milwaukee, where the Brewers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in what could be a potential NLDS preview on Monday. This is another instance where I’ll be looking to back the Dodgers early following a bad loss, as this has often been a winning strategy this season. The World Series favorites were dispatched at home by the red-hot Astros over the weekend, and while that could be cause for some mild concern, Los Angeles did not employ many of its top arms in that series, which won’t be the case this time out.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is getting the ball for the Dodgers on Monday, and he currently owns a 2.83 xERA to go along with high marks in strikeout percentage, ground-ball rate and opponent expected batting average. He should see plenty of success against a Milwaukee lineup that is just 24th on the season is wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and doesn’t possess much firepower at the top. On the other side, Freddy Peralta will start for the hosts, and while he’s in the midst of a solid campaign, his expected metrics (9.6% barrel rate, 37.2% ground-ball rate, 3.72 xERA) do suggest that he’s pitched a bit above his head to this point. I’ll avoid the bullpens in this game and target Los Angeles in the first 5 innings.
Read our full Dodgers vs Brewers prediction for tonight’s matchup
