Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season resumes following the all-star break, and Friday features a full slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 51-30 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 102-65-6 in this article series this season, including being on a 24-7 run right now.
Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Saturday, July 19. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
MLB best bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML over Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on an interleague matchup between the Angels and Phillies. These are two teams that aren’t in the same weight class, but you wouldn’t have known that on Friday, as Los Angeles rallied to win the series opener at Citizens Bank Park. However, I’ll be targeting the hosts to get back into the win column at home on Saturday, where they are 30-17 on the season.
It all starts with on the mound for Philadelphia, as Taijuan Walker is in the midst of a bounce-back season following a disastrous 2024 campaign. Walker holds a 3.55 ERA through 20 appearances, while ranking inside the top 30% of all qualified starters in xERA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate (Baseball Savant). He should do enough to stymie the Angels offense in this one. On the other side, Los Angeles is countering with Yusei Kikuchi, whose metrics (4.31 xERA, 10.4% barrel rate, 1.37 WHIP) suggest that he’s due for some major regression in the second half of the season. That doesn’t bode well against a Phillies lineup that is a top 10 unit in baseball in a myriad of metrics. Let’s back Philadelphia to get back on track at home.
MLB best bet: St. Cardinals F5 team total over 1.5 (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.
Our 2nd MLB best bet today takes us to Arizona, where the Diamondbacks are hosting the St. Louis Cardinals in a series that holds real weight for both teams in the NL Wild Card race. I backed the over in this matchup on Friday, and I’m going right back to the well on Saturday, this time with the Cardinals team total over in the first 5 innings. St Louis’ offense has been inconsistent all season long (14th in OPS, 18th in SLG), but the Cardinals are going up against Ryne Nelson (4.20 xERA, .264 xBA, bottom 15% whiff rate), whose metrics suggest that he’s due for some fairly significant regression in his upcoming starts. Opponents have cleared this number against Nelson in 2 of his last 3 starts, which even speaks to the fact that we can cash this bet even if he has a solid outing. Let’s back the Redbirds offense in the desert.
