Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Saturday features a full slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 42-26 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 88-60-6 in this article series this season, including being on a 10-2 run right now. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Saturday, July 5. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today, with our experts going 62-30 last week to finish up +46.6 units!
MLB best bet: Los Angeles Dodgers ML over Houston Astros (-140)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on a massive interleague clash between the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers. Houston has announced itself as a serious World Series contender in recent weeks, culminating with an absolute beatdown of the Dodgers in Friday’s series opener on the road. The Astros have certainly laid down the gauntlet in this series, and I’d expect Los Angeles to respond to this embarrassing loss with one of their best efforts of the season on Saturday. It certainly helps matters that Shohei Ohtani is getting the start, and I’d expect the do-it-all superstar to have a bit of a longer leash in this one, especially since he’s had 3 starts of incremental buildup to this point. Additionally, the Dodgers bullpen should have all of their high leverage arms at their disposal given that the hosts didn’t use any of them in Friday’s defeat.
On the other side, Houston is going to counter with Framber Valdez, who has typically been a pitcher that I’ve looked to back in the past. And while the left-hander looks to be putting together another solid season on the mound, his expected metrics leave a bit to be desired. After all, Valdez holds an xERA of 3.77 (over 1 run lower than his actual ERA), along with a 47.6% hard-hit rate, which ranks inside the bottom 10 of all qualified starters per Baseball Savant. Regression is certainly due, and that could come against an elite Dodgers lineup on Saturday. Ultimately, I’ll back the Dodgers to even the series at a game apiece.
MLB best bet: Washington Nationals F5 team total over 2.5 (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
Our 2nd MLB best bet today takes us to the nation’s capital, where the Washington Nationals will host the Boston Red Sox on Saturday. This is another instance where the visiting team took it to the hosts in a series opener, as Boston tallied 11 runs in a rout to start the series on a positive note. However, Washington’s lineup will have the advantage of facing Walker Buehler on Saturday, which has typically meant good things for any opposing offense this season. Buehler has not been sharp in 2025, posting a 6.45 ERA, along with a 1.58 WHIP and .271 expected batting average against. In fact, Buehler has allowed at least 3 earned runs over his last 6 outings, while exceeding 5 innings pitched in just 1 of those starts. Let’s fade the struggling Buehler with the Nationals team total over in the first 5 innings.
