Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Saturday features a full slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 42-28 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 88-62-6 in this article series this season, including being on a 10-4 run right now. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Sunday, July 6. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today, with our experts going 62-30 last week to finish up +46.6 units!
MLB best bet: Detroit Tigers -1.5 over Cleveland Guardians (-120)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on an AL Central clash between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians. The Tigers have announced themselves as a serious World Series contender this season, and Detroit should keep on rolling against a Guardians team that is absolutely floundering of late. Cleveland has dropped 9 of its last 10 games, and a matchup against Tarik Skubal (32.2% hard-hit rate, 2.45 xERA, 3.4% walk rate) is absolutely not what the doctored ordered for a Guardians lineup that is one of the worst units in baseball (28th in OPS and SLG).
On the other side, Cleveland is going to counter with Gavin Williams, who has typically been a pitcher that I’ve looked to fade this season. Williams has struggled of late, and his expected metrics leave a bit to be desired as well. After all, Williams holds an xERA of 4.57 (nearly 1 run lower than his actual ERA), along with a 13.1% walk rate, which ranks inside the bottom 5% of all qualified starters per Baseball Savant. Regression is certainly due, and that could come against Detroit on Sunday.
MLB best bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 over St. Louis Cardinals (+108)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100.
Our second MLB best bet today takes us to St. Louis, where the Cardinals will host the Chicago Cubs in this NL Central rivalry showdown on Sunday. This is another instance where I’ll be backing the heavy favorite, and it all starts on the mound in this one. The Cubs lineup will have the advantage of facing Erick Fedde on Sunday, which has typically meant good things for any opposing offense this season.
Fedde has not been sharp in 2025, posting a 4.57 ERA (5.42 xERA), along with a 1.42 WHIP and .293 expected batting average against. In fact, his expected metrics are extremely concerning, as Fedde sits inside the bottom 5% in strikeout rate, whiff rate and expected batting average. There are plenty of reasons to fade the struggling starter with the Cubs rock solid offense (4th in OPS) in this one. As for the hosts, Matthew Boyd is getting the ball for the Cubs on Sunday, and he’s allowed 2 runs or fewer in each of his last 7 outings. There is plenty to like about Chicago on both sides of the ball, so I’ll gladly take the Cubs to win comfortably on Sunday.
