Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Thursday features a full slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 38-26 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 84-60-6 in this article series this season. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Thursday, July 3. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today, with our experts going 62-30 last week to finish up +46.6 units!
MLB best bet: Mariners F5 ML over Royals (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on an American League clash between the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners. The hosts have already taken 2 of the first 3 games of this series, and I’m expecting Seattle to start off strong with Bryan Woo on the mound on Thursday. Woo has long been a pitcher I’m high on, and he currently is in good form, holding a 2.93 ERA to go along with an elite 4.3% walk rate. Conversely, the Royals will counter with Seth Lugo, and while his raw numbers have been pretty solid, his poor expected metrics (4.63 xERA, 47.3% hard-hit rate, bottom 10% chase rate) suggest that regression is due for the right-hander. Ultimately, I’ll take the better starter and better overall team to be leading or tied after 5 innings on Thursday.
Don’t miss our expert’s best MLB player prop bets for today’s action, targeting Dustin May in White Sox vs Dodgers
MLB best bet: Giants F5 ML over Diamondbacks (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Our 2nd MLB best bet today takes us to Arizona, where I’ll be targeting the Giants in the first 5 innings. This has been a rollercoaster of a series, but I’m eager to back San Francisco given the edge that it will have on the mound in this contest. The Giants are sending Robbie Ray to the mound, and the veteran southpaw holds a 2.75 ERA (2.91 xERA), to go along with an elite .208 expected batting average and high marks in strikeout and whiff rate. He should see success against a Diamondbacks lineup that doesn’t have great career numbers against Ray.
As for Arizona, the Diamondbacks are countering with Brandon Pfaadt, who is in the bottom 1% of all qualified starters in xERA (6.80) and expected batting average (.319), to go along with an abysmal 49.8% hard-hit rate and 13.8% barrel rate, both of which rank in the bottom 3% per Baseball Savant. While the Giants’ offense has been inconsistent of late, Pfaadt hasn’t registered many quality starts on the season, and I wouldn’t expect that to start now. Let’s back San Francisco to lead after 5 innings, and we’ll still get a push if the game is tied.
Read our full Giants vs Diamondbacks prediction for tonight
