Caleb Wilfinger
The 2nd half of the 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and while Thursday features just 3 games, there are more than enough betting opportunities for us to carve out. I’m 55-35 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 110-78-7 in this article series this season, including being on a 31-21 run right now. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top predictions on Thursday, July 31. You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
MLB best bet: Cincinnati Reds F5 -0.5 over Atlanta Braves (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125.
For my first MLB best bet for today, we’ll focus on a National League battle between the Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves. These are 2 teams heading in completely different directions, and the quality of both sides has shown of late, as Cincinnati is just 3 games behind the Padres for the final NL Wild Card spot, while Atlanta has dropped 8 of its last 10 games and now sits at a whopping 17 games under .500 on the season. To add insult to injury, the Braves are without Ronald Acuna Jr. and recently traded for 38-year-old Carlos Carrasco as a stopgap for some of their pitching issues. Cincinnati’s offense should feast early and often against Carrasco, who posted a 5.91 ERA in his 8 appearances at the MLB level this season.
On the other side, Cincinnati is turning the ball over to Andrew Abbott, which should put the Reds in a great position to lead after 5 innings. The southpaw has been fantastic this season, posting an 8-1 record to go along with a 2.09 ERA and a hard-hit rate that ranks inside the top 10 percent of all qualified starters. With Cincinnati’s ace on the bump and Atlanta opting to go with a reclamation project, I’ll take the Reds to hold an edge in the first 5 innings on Thursday.
Read our full Braves vs Reds prediction
MLB best bet: Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Over 7.5 (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
Our 2nd MLB best bet today takes us to Seattle, where the visiting Texas Rangers will take on the new-look Mariners. Seattle is undeniably a team to watch in the American League playoff race, but Texas has been playing some of its best baseball of the season since the all-star break. Given that the Mariners have recently acquired Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, the market is certainly high on them, and rightfully so. However, it’s the starting pitching proposition that makes me want to avoid a side and simply focus on both offenses in this one.
Mariners starter George Kirby has not been his usual excellent self this season, posting a 4.50 ERA to go along with a 2.57 xBA and a hard-hit rate that places him in the bottom 25 percent of all starters (Baseball Savant). Kirby has been excellent against the Rangers in his career, but he has yet to face Texas this season. He’ll be going up against Kumar Rocker, who has some extremely concerning numbers of his own (5.52 xERA, bottom 10% in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and expected batting average). The new-look Mariners lineup could certainly hit the ground running against a pitcher that has struggled mightily this season, making the Over a very interesting proposition, even in a pitcher’s park.
Read our full Rangers vs Mariners prediction
