Caleb Wilfinger
The 2025 MLB season keeps rolling along, and Thursday features a 9-game slate for us to enjoy. I’m 33-21 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is 76-54-6 in this article series this season. Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top picks on Thursday, June 26. You can also find out our experts’ MLB picks for EVERY GAME today!
MLB best bet: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Over 8.5 (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125.
For my first MLB best bet for Thursday’s slate, let’s head to Queens for a matchup between the Braves and Mets. Both of these lineups have been strong in this series to this point, and that should continue considering the pitching matchup that we have at Citi Field. Atlanta is giving the ball to Grant Holmes, who has solid metrics in terms of strikeout rate and ground-ball rate. However, the right-hander’s recent numbers have been buoyed from facing the Rockies and Marlins, and this Mets lineup (5th in OPS, 6th in SLG) is obviously in a totally different class. The expected metrics suggest that Holmes is also due for some regression, and that should come to fruition on the road.
As for the hosts, the Mets will send out Griffin Canning for this series finale, and the right-hander is another pitcher who is due for some regression against a Braves offense that has put up 23 runs over their last 5 contests. With the insertion of Ronald Acuna Jr. back into the lineup, Atlanta’s offense suddenly looks like the formidable unit that it has been over the last few seasons. Throw in the fact that Canning (4.46 xERA, 45.6% hard-hit rate) has struggled over his last 3 outings, and we have a recipe for another high-scoring affair in this series.
Don’t miss our expert’s best MLB prop bets for today, targeting Phillies vs Astros
MLB best bet: San Francisco Giants F5 -0.5 over Miami Marlins (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
Our 2nd MLB best bet on Thursday’s slate takes us to San Francisco for a battle between the Marlins and Giants. To the surprise of many, Miami has won the first 2 games of this series, but I’m anticipating a bounce-back effort from San Francisco in order to avoid a sweep at home to a significantly inferior opponent. With that said, the pitching matchup is one that favors the Giants, so I’ll stay away from any possible bullpen mishaps and target the home team to lead after the first 5 innings.
Janson Junk has been a good story for the Marlins this season, and his numbers are certainly solid on paper. However, the expected metrics tell a far different story, as the right-hander holds a 4.20 xERA, .305 expected batting average and a whopping 53.7% hard-hit rate that puts him in the bottom 1 percent of all qualified starters (Baseball Savant). The Giants’ offense has stumbled lately, but they should have no trouble making hard contact and scratching off a few runs against Junk in this one. On the other side, Hayden Birdsong is coming off a mediocre outing against the Red Sox, but he has otherwise been rock solid to this point, and the Marlins’ lineup shouldn’t scare any opposing pitcher. Let’s take the Giants to lead after the 5th inning at home.
Read our full Marlins vs Giants prediction for this afternoon’s matchup
