Caleb Wilfinger
The second half of the 2025 MLB season continues rolling along, and Thursday features a 9-game slate of action for us to enjoy. I’m 86-58-1 on my MLB best bets this year and the Pickswise MLB handicapping team as a whole is currently on a 29-12 run! Let’s keep it going as we get into today’s top MLB predictions on Thursday, September 11.
You can also find out our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
MLB best bet: Philadelphia Phillies F5 -0.5 over New York Mets (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
For my first MLB best bet today, we’ll focus on this NL East matchup between the Phillies and Mets from Citi Field. New York has really fallen on hard times of late, as the Mets have dropped 5 straight and 7 of their last 10 contests overall. As a result, New York is in precarious position in the NL Wild Card race, having seen its lead drop to just 2 games over the Reds and Giants. I don’t expect the Mets to turn things around in this series finale on Thursday, especially in the early going. After all, Jesus Luzardo gets the start for Philadelphia, and the lefty has solid metrics across the board while also clearly due for some positive regression (3.49 xERA). New York is countering with David Peterson (4.27 xERA), who has surrendered 12 runs and 15 hits over his last 7 innings pitched. Let’s take the Phillies to lead after 5 innings on Thursday.
MLB best bet: San Diego Padres -1.5 over Colorado Rockies (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125.
For my second MLB best bet on Thursday, I’ll be targeting the Padres to pick up a much-needed victory at home on the run line. San Diego has been struggling mightily in recent weeks, dropping 7 of its last 10 games and currently trailing the Dodgers by 3 games in the NL West. The Padres couldn’t make up ground on Los Angeles while the Dodgers were struggling, but Thursday’s matchup against the Rockies provides San Diego with an opportunity to bounce back in a big way.
Padres starter Randy Vasquez’s numbers aren’t pretty, but it’s not like the Colorado offense (24th in SLG, 27th in OPS) is going to make him pay. On the other side, McCade Brown has not fared well in his first month in the big leagues, having just surrendered 6 runs in less than 2 innings of work against this same Padres lineup in his last outing. With that in mind, let’s count on San Diego to pick up where it left off in this matchup.
