MLB picks & predictions for Today, 4/18: NRFI & YRFI best bets today: Pitchers bounce back in San Francisco

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (62) pitches the ball against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Oracle Park.
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Caleb Wilfinger


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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email
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After an eventful offseason that featured plenty of moves that shook up the sport, the MLB regular season has started off with a bang. And while there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action on the diamond this season, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes.

I cashed on my last YRFI/NRFI best bet so let’s keep that momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for all of today’s games on the diamond.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants: NRFI (-120)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

My favorite bet in this market on Thursday is targeting an NL West showdown between a pair of teams that have been extremely inconsistent to this point in the MLB season. Logan Webb will get the ball for the Giants in this one, and while his early season numbers aren’t great on paper, most of that is due to one poor start against the Dodgers back on April 2. Since allowing 5 runs in that contest, Webb has bounced back nicely with a pair of 7-inning outings where he’s surrendered a total of 3 earned runs over his last 2 starts. It helps that Webb’s home ballpark in San Francisco is very favorable for pitching with the wind of the bay and the overall layout of the stadium, which goes along with his skill set that has perfectly meshed with his environment. It helps that Webb tossed 27 innings against the Diamondbacks in 2023, allowing only a 3.00 ERA and a WHIP just over 1 in that span.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks are countering with Ryne Nelson, who performed well in his last start, delivering 6 innings of 1-run ball against the Cardinals. Even though his underlying metrics aren’t elite, Nelson is still due for some positive regression compared to his peripheral numbers. Given that we’re in a pitchers’ park, I’ll trust the Arizona starter to keep the Giants bats quiet in the opening frame. This one might get a little sweaty if San Francisco gets an early baserunner, but I’ll ultimately trust what the market is telling us with this number and take the NRFI.

Read our full Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants predictions

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