Ricky Dimon
A new week in Major League Baseball begins with a 9-game schedule on Monday. It’s an intriguing slate that includes Cubs vs Phillies, Rays vs Red Sox, Blue Jays vs Cardinals and Dodgers vs Padres. I’m 33-24-1 record so far this season in these MLB best bets articles, while going 4-for-8 on Same Game Parlays at +481, +632, +439 and +600 odds and 5-1 on YRFI/NRFI picks! Let’s keep it going as we get into my MLB best bets of the day! You can also find out our experts’ MLB picks for EVERY game today.
MLB best bet: Cleveland Guardians ML over Cincinnati Reds (-152)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Wade Miley is taking the mound for Cincinnati on Monday and it is impossible to have any faith in him being effective. Miley was out for a year due to elbow surgery before making his first appearance for the Reds (in his second stint with them) last Wednesday. The 38-year-old lefty worked only 2.0 innings against Milwaukee and surrendered 4 runs on 6 hits with no strikeouts or walks during a 9-1 loss. Cleveland’s Carlos Santana should be chomping at the bit. He is 7-for-15 lifetime against Miley with a home run, a double and 4 walks.
The Guardians are countering with Luis Ortiz, whose numbers aren’t great (3-6, 4.02 ERA) but has actually been outstanding aside from 3 poor starts that are skewing his stats. Over his last 5 outings, the right-hander’s ERA has plunged from 5.30 to 4.02. This is a huge pitching advantage for the Guards, plus they are playing at home. They are 18-13 at Progressive Field, while the Reds are 13-18 as visitors in 2025.
Read our full Reds vs Guardians prediction
MLB best bet: Tampa Bay Rays F5 ML over Boston Red Sox (-108)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing
The Red Sox did well to take 2 of 3 from the Yankees this past weekend, but Boston is still just 5-9 in its last 14 games. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is playing fantastic baseball. It is 14-4 in its last 18 and it hasn’t lost by more than 1 run since May 27. It hasn’t lost by more than 2 runs since May 18. The Rays are almost always winning, and when they aren’t, they are at least keeping it close.
More of the same should be in store for Monday. Tampa Bay starter Shane Baz has been impressive in his last 3 appearances and has been much better on the road than at home so far this year. Boston’s Brayan Bello has a 4.11 ERA at Fenway Park and his overall ERA has ballooned from 2.01 to 3.91 over his past 5 appearances. Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Jose Caballero are all batting better than .400 lifetime against Bello. I think the Rays have a great chance to be leading through 5 – or at worst tied, which would salvage a push.
Read our full Rays vs Red Sox prediction
