Major League Baseball has had an awesome start to the regular season, and Tuesday should be more of the same with a loaded 14-game slate. You can find out our expert MLB picks for every single one of those games, but I’ve circled my 2 MLB best bets of the day for Tuesday, March 31. With an endless number of angles to take on these matchups, let’s dive in and discuss my top picks!
MLB best bet: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds – First 5 innings under 4.5 (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
I like the under on the posted total through the first 5 innings of play in Tuesday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds. Taking an under in Great American Ballpark can be a scary proposition, but there are a few factors playing into what I believe is a nice price on today’s under. First off, wind will be blowing in from left field at around 13 MPH during game time, which should help knock down some fly balls. Temperatures will be warm, but neither offense has been warm to begin their 2026 campaign. Cincinnati has scored just 11 runs combined through their first 4 games this season, while Pittsburgh is not much better with 13 of their own.
Bubba Chandler is set to make his season debut for the Pirates. The top right-handed pitching prospect in the sport, according to MLB.com, Chandler possesses clear talent and an ability to shut down opposing lineups. His strikeout stuff is obvious, but with that comes some command issues he will have to iron out. He did walk 11 batters in 11 innings this spring, but his last outing resulted in 5 innings of 1-run ball with just 1 free pass issued and 8 punch outs. Look for a strong start to Chandler’s day as no active Reds have faced him before at this level.
Brandon Williamson is the Reds’ scheduled starter for this matchup. Williamson is not the level of talent that Chandler is, but he is left-handed. Left-handed starters are an early target of mine this season when facing the Pirates from Pittsburgh. The Pirates constructed their lineup to fit well in PNC Park, stacking left-handed bats throughout their order.
The first southpaw starter Pittsburgh faced this season was David Peterson, who registered 5.1 innings of scoreless ball. Oneil Cruz was benched in that game as he struggles against his same-handedness, while Jared Triolo batted out of place in the leadoff spot. Ryan O’Hearn is good against either handedness, but Brandon Lowe and Spencer Horwitz both prefer to face righties. Bryan Reynolds is off to a very slow start this season and Marcell Ozuna has yet to make his presence known. With all things considered I favor the under through 5 innings of play in Cincinnati Tuesday.
Read our full Pirates vs Reds prediction
MLB best bet: Houston Astros ML over Boston Red Sox (-145)
Hunter Brown showcased his electric stuff against the Angels in his season opener, striking out 9 batters in just 4.2 innings. Those strikeouts and his 4 walks ate at his pitch count, resulting in an early exit, but Brown was able to keep the Angels scoreless during his time. Last season, Brown posted a 2.43 ERA across 185.1 innings of work, flashing similarly impressive underlying metrics. He also has had success against this Boston lineup in a brief sample. I have massive expectations for Brown in 2026 as he looks to fill the void left by Framber Valdez, who left in free agency.
Brayan Bello is a pitcher I was always fond of in his early years, and the right-hander produced his best professional season last year for the Red Sox. Bello tossed 166.2 innings with a 3.35 ERA, but his underlying numbers do suggest regression. His xFIP, xERA, and FIP are all at least 0.84 runs higher than his ERA, and he is extremely dependent on ground balls getting him out of jams. In spring training competition, Bello was able to garner a higher strikeout rate, but I am hesitant to put stock into it until he does that at the Major League level. While Boston does have the more rested bullpen, I favor Brown and the Astros at home in this spot.
Read our full Red Sox vs Astros prediction
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