MLB picks Tuesday 10/3: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Wild Card round gets off to a quick start
After a grueling and eventful 162-game season, the MLB playoffs are finally here. And while there are plenty of ways to wager on all of the action, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. Even at this point in the season, there is still value to be had in this market, so it’s no wonder that these bets have become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your wagers for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I ended the season on a 36-19 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for each of today’s postseason matchups.
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies: NRFI (-125)
For my first pick on Tuesday’s loaded Wild Card slate, I’m going with the NRFI in Philadelphia between the Marlins and Phillies. This is a series that I believe to be heavily lopsided in Philadelphia’s favor, particularly when it comes to the lineups involved in this game. However, one area where the teams are on similar footing is on the mound, particularly in Game 1.
Zack Wheeler has been predictably excellent this season, and his expected numbers (3.18 xERA, 93rd percentile in walk rate, 87th percentile in barrel rate) all suggest that the Phillies ace has been even better than what his peripherals suggest. He should be able to get off to a hot start at home against a Marlins lineup that is already without Luis Arraez at the top of the order. On the other side, Jesus Luzardo’s second half of the season has been up and down. However, Luzardo does have a 3-0 record with a 3.26 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 5 career appearances against the Phillies, including a pair of strong outings this season. Given the strength of these pitchers and the postseason jitters both offenses should have early on, let’s ride with the NRFI at Citizens Bank Park.
Lock in our expert’s MLB mega parlay for the first day of the postseason at +963 odds
Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-130)
For my second pick on Tuesday’s wonderful Wild Card slate, we’re going with another NRFI, this time in the American League between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins. The Jays are back in the playoffs after crushing disappointment in the Wild Card round a season ago, and they’ll have Kevin Gausman on the hill for Game 1 of this series in Minnesota. Gausman hasn’t been as sharp down the stretch as in previous months but he’s surrendered just 10 earned runs against the Twins over his last 4 outings (2022-23), so there is precedent for him succeeding against this lineup. More importantly for the NRFI, Pablo Lopez has been outstanding for Minnesota (2.98 xERA, 94th percentile xwOBA, 95% chase rate), and he should see more success to start this series. Look for another low-scoring game to start with a scoreless opening frame on Tuesday.
Check out our full Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins predictions