The Rangers are back in front as Texas won Game 3 last night, giving them a 2-1 lead in the 2023 MLB World Series. For tonight, it will likely be a bullpen game from both teams, so it boils down to this: which arm barn is less tired and can provide more quality innings? Here’s my Rangers vs Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay for Game 4 that I made at FanDuel Sportsbook and pays out at nearly 5/1 odds. Make sure you also read our MLB predictions for tonight’s game.
Ketel Marte 1+ hit (-340)
Christian Walker 2+ total bases (+100)
Rangers ML (-110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +488
Ketel Marte 1+ hit (-340)
This one is pretty simple. For this leg of the Same Game Parlay to cash, Ketel Marte needs to get at least 1 hit. The reason this leg is so heavily favored is because Marte has recorded a hit in 19 straight postseason games, a new MLB record. He extended the streak with a line drive off Jon Gray last night, and he has the chance to extend the streak to 20 games on Tuesday night.
Marte will face Andrew Heaney first, who will likely get through 2-4 innings before the next bulk arm comes in. That first matchup favors Marte since the Arizona hitter is 2-for-6 with 2 home runs in his career against Heaney. The switch-hitting infielder is also better against left-handed pitching since he hit .313 with a .879 OPS in the regular season against southpaws. Lucky for him, he will likely face at least 2 lefties tonight since Cody Bradford is also expected to make a relief appearance. One hit seems like a relatively easy task for Marte.
Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bet for Game 4 — we’re 3-0 so far in the World Series!
Christian Walker 2+ total bases (+100)
If Arizona can get Christian Walker going, their lineup will be even more dangerous. The Diamondbacks’ cleanup hitter has been struggling to break through in the last few games or so, but he scorched a double into the gap in his first at-bat last night, which could be a sign of good things to come. That double was a home run in 20 of the 30 parks, including in Texas, but the triple-friendly conditions of Chase Field held it in.
Although Walker didn’t record another hit in the game after that, he still hit the ball very well. His second at-bat consisted of a 96.8 MPH ground out, and then his third at-bat was a 101.6 MPH out that had a .510 xBA. And since Jon Gray had to pitch out of the bullpen last night, the lefty Andrew Heaney has to start tonight, and I doubt there is a player more excited about that than Walker. In 3 career at-bats against Heaney, the Gold Glove first baseman is 2-for-3 with 2 home runs. Whether it’s with one swing of the bat or through a multi-hit game, I like Walker’s chances of at least 2 bases.
Texas Rangers ML over Arizona Diamondbacks (-110)
The Diamondbacks have found themselves in a bad spot. Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt are all unavailable for Game 4 and, unlike the Rangers, they don’t have a reliable bulk innings guy. The Rangers have Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford, who can bridge the gap between the starter and the bullpen or act as a long-relief arm. However, the Diamondbacks have only one pitcher who could go multiple innings, and his name is Ryne Nelson. Nelson is another rookie who had a terrible rookie season as the right-hander posted a 5.31 ERA with a 5.30 xERA and ranked in the bottom 5% of starters in most pitching categories. He’s appeared in only 2 games in the postseason, and in his most recent outing in the NLCS, the rookie was shelled for 3 runs, 4 hits and 1 walk in 0.2 innings.
Although Joe Mantiply is the starter, he will only go 1 inning before his day is done. I’m expecting Nelson to try and get to the 4th inning before it’s all hands on deck from the rest of the Arizona arm barn. But it’s during Nelson’s time on the mound that the Rangers need to strike. If Heaney can give the Rangers 3-4 innings, Texas should be able to use Dunning and Bradford to get to Josh Sborz, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc in the final 3 innings. The bottom line is Arizona’s pitching problems will be too big to overcome, and in the end, I think Texas takes a 3-1 lead in the World Series.
