The first Divisional round matchup takes place in Baltimore as the Rangers and Orioles kick off a best-of-five series. Kyle Bradish and Andrew Heaney will duel in Game 1, but I see a few different edges in the game that I’ve used in this Same Game Parlay. At nearly 9/1 odds, let’s get into my parlay that I made at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Orioles ML (-148)
Rangers-Orioles alternate total under 7.5 (+110)
Corey Seager 2+ bases (-110)
Same Game Parlay odds: +889
Baltimore Orioles ML (-148) over Texas Rangers
The series between the Rangers and Orioles is expected to be one of the most exciting matchups, and a big reason for that is because not many people expected these two teams to be where they are. The Rangers had the most difficult Wild Card draw as they had a best-of-three series in Tampa Bay against the Rays which seemed like a one-way ticket to the offseason, but following a two-game sweep, here are the Rangers in the ALDS. However, one of the downfalls of playing in the Wild Card is that Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi are unavailable for Game 1. That’s a huge loss for Texas because the Rangers know that Baltimore has been resting for a week and have Kyle Bradish ready to go.
However, in a relatively shocking move, the Rangers decided not to start Dane Dunning in Game 1. Instead, Bruce Bochy has opted to start the lefty Andrew Heaney, who bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen in September. This seems like a matchup-based decision since the O’s have several lefty hitters at the top of their lineup, such as Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins. However, it is interesting to note that during the regular season, the Orioles ranked 9th in batting average and 12th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching and 10th in batting average and 8th in wRC+ against lefties. In summary, facing a lefty isn’t a disadvantage for the O’s.
Baltimore claimed its first AL East title since 2014, and that earned a bye through the Wild Card. That means Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and John Means are rested, ready and raring to get back on the mound after an extended rest. The week off also gave the O’s bullpen a much-needed break which is crucial since a good arm barn can make or break a postseason run. For Game 1, Hyde has unsurprisingly named Bradish the starter. The right-hander finished the regular season as the ace of the O’s as he posted a 2.83 ERA in 30 starts. And in 13 starts at Camden Yards, Bradish had a 2.23 ERA and limited hitters to a .199 batting average. Hyde will likely try to get 5 innings out of Bradish before turning to the bullpen, and Hyde has a plethora of excellent options to go to, like Tyler Wells, Shintaro Fujinami, Cole Irvin and Yennier Cano. Bradish and the O’s should open their 2023 postseason with a win.
Check out our Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles predictions
Texas Rangers vs Baltimore Orioles under 7.5 (+110)
The under also makes a lot of sense in this spot for several reasons. First, Bradish is on the mound at his home park. The right-hander was spectacular all season, but he was even better in front of his own fans. His 2.23 ERA speaks for itself, and the fact he held hitters below a .200 average is special. Bradish also held hitters to a .259 on-base percentage, a .554 OPS and a 24.5% strikeout percentage during those 13 home starts. And looking at his season log, the under was 9-3-1 when Bradish started at Camden Yards in the regular season. Bradish will face a powerful Rangers lineup that was able to rip into Tampa Bay’s pitching in the Wild Card, but Texas’ track record against the Orioles right-hander isn’t the best. Between Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe, Jonah Heim, who make up the heart of the Texas lineup, they are a combined 4-for-32 (.125) with 10 strikeouts against Bradish.
Once Bruce Bochy gets the sense that Heaney is running into trouble, he won’t hesitate to pull him. Heaney made two starts against the Orioles in the regular season and allowed 8 runs, 11 hits and 3 home runs in 9.2 innings. As you might be able to guess based on that stat line, the Baltimore lineup has hit Heaney well in their careers. Between Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander, they are 10-30 (.333) with 5 home runs against Heaney in their careers. Because of that, I would be surprised if Heaney goes more than 4 innings. That means Dane Dunning could bridge the gap from Heaney to the bullpen, and that’s not a guy I’d like to rely on in a crucial game. To maximize the value, I’m taking an alternate total under.
Don’t miss my MLB best bets for Saturday too!
Corey Seager 2+ bases (-110)
So far in this Same Game Parlay, I’ve included the Orioles to win and for the game to be under the posted total. That led me to wonder about how I could drive up the payout. What goes against the Orioles winning and for the game to be low-scoring? The answer: a Rangers hitter doing well. The best hitter in the Rangers lineup right now is Corey Seager, who went 4-for-8 in the Wild Card round against the Rays. Seager will hit second behind Marcus Semien like he has all season, and since the Rangers are the away team, he will more than likely get four at-bats. This leg could win with one extra-base hit or a pair of singles, so it’s an excellent option to add to the Same Game Parlay to boost the odds to nearly 9/1.
