Ricky Dimon
Another week in the Major League Baseball season gets underway with an 11-game slate on Monday. The lineup includes Phillies vs Reds, Red Sox vs Astros and Padres vs Giants. The YRFI/NRFI market is extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
I have been in fine form so far this season, with a 59-45-2 record on best bets while going 4-for-10 on Same Game Parlays at +481, +632, +439 and +600 odds.
Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI bets for Monday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-120)
Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing
As well as the Brewers are playing, they are dead last in all of Major League Baseball in YRFI percentage – scoring a first-inning run just 21.6 percent of the time. At home they are all the way down at a hard-to-believe 12.1 percent. By comparison, only 1 other team (Seattle) in the entire league is worse than 22.0 percent at home. Needless to say, I have little concern that Milwaukee will cross the plate right away on Monday. Pittsburgh’s Andrew Heaney has allowed just 4 earned runs in his last 3 appearances spanning 13.0 innings. None of those earned runs came in the opening frame.
The Brewers are countering with Freddy Peralta, who is 13-5 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 141 strikeouts compared to just 49 walks in 130.2 innings. Peralta has given up 1 run or fewer in 4 of his last 6 starts. Now he faces a Pirates offense that is the worst in all of baseball (426 runs scored). I don’t see either club touching the scoreboard in the opening frame.
Tampa Bay Rays vs The Athletics: NRFI (+114)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Jeffrey Springs is toeing the rubber for the Athletics on Monday. Springs is sporting a 3.89 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, but those solid numbers don’t even indicate how well he has pitched of late. The 32-year-old has surrendered just 4 earned runs in his past 3 starts, all of which lasted 6.0 innings. Nobody on Tampa Bay’s active roster has more than 2 hits all time against Springs. A lack of familiarity generally favors pitchers over hitters, so I expect the left-hander to be effective early and often in this one.
The A’s are pretty good in the first (32.8 percent), but I think Ryan Pepiot can keep them in check. Pepiot (3.77 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) has yielded a first-inning run only once in his last 3 outings and he delivered a quality start (2 runs in 6.0 innings) when he faced the Athletics earlier this season on July 2. I’ll also roll with the NRFI in this series opener, especially at outstanding +114 odds.
