MLB Picks

The Boston Red Sox bounced back in a big way on Monday night with a win over the Baltimore Orioles. Today, Boston will look to continue their hot hitting ways against Kyle Bradish, who is making his first start of the season. Bradish last pitched on June 14, 2024, and returns to the Orioles’ rotation after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery. 

The Red Sox will send Lucas Giolito to the mound, who enters with an 8-2 record and a 3.72 ERA. Giolito last faced Baltimore back on May 24, when he tossed seven scoreless innings and struck out six. This is an Orioles team the Red Sox need to win against if they want to stay in the postseason hunt. There’s a big question mark surrounding Bradish tonight and how he’ll perform after Tommy John. I don’t expect him to return to his 2024 form right out of the gate, but he may be able to deliver a strong few innings for Baltimore in tonight’s matchup. However, Baltimore holds a 4.66 bullpen ERA this season, which could open the door for the Red Sox late in the game. I like how aggressive this Red Sox team has been at the plate, which is why I think they’ll be able to get things done tonight and secure an early series win. 

Red Sox vs Orioles prediction: Red Sox ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

I favor the Atlanta Braves over the Miami Marlins in their matchup this Tuesday. Hurston Waldrep is set to start for the Braves, marking his 5th start of the season. His first 4 outings have resulted in 24.2 innings with just 2 earned runs allowed. This includes 7 scoreless frames in his last outing against the White Sox. With essentially a strikeout per inning pitched and a WHIP of only 0.77 so far, I have been very impressed with Waldrep’s potential. He faces a solid Miami lineup, but it is a unit he should be able to contain.

Sandy Alcantara has delivered 13 innings with only 2 earned runs allowed in his last 2 starts, but his season-long numbers are still far from impressive. Alcantara’s ERA still sits at 6.04 through 134 innings of work and he struggled against this Braves lineup earlier this month. In that outing the right-hander allowed 7 hits, 4 walks, 2 home runs, and 5 earned runs in 5 innings of work. Look for the Braves to grab a win in this matchup.

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins prediction: Braves ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.

The Cleveland offense is in a major rut right now. After Monday’s 9-0 loss to the Rays, the Guardians have been shutout in 3 consecutive games. Needless to say, that isn’t exactly ideal. The lack of offense has been a common theme for Cleveland in August. So far this month, the Guardians rank dead last in all of baseball with a .205 batting average and .594 OPS. The are set to face Tampa Bay starter Shane Baz in this matchup, and while he has struggled lately, he should be able to carve up Cleveland’s lineup. Baz has been much better on the road than at home this season, as his ERA drops from a whopping 7.06 at home to a respectable 3.52 on the road. Furthermore, his BAA dips from .284 to .232.

On the other side, the Tampa Bay offense is absolutely rolling right now. The Rays have scored a total of 26 runs during their 3-game win streak. They could be in line for another big day at the plate as they go up against Cleveland starter Parker Messick. The 24-year-old left-hander will be making just his second career MLB appearance. The first one went well, but the Rays are capable of giving him some growing pains on a big league mound. Back the Rays on the road.

Guardians vs Rays prediction: Rays ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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If the Yankees want to make the playoffs, this is a series they need to win, and last night’s performance was a strong start. New York put up 10 runs against the Nationals last night and will look to keep the offense rolling against left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who enters with a 5-12 record and 4.11 ERA. 

For the Yankees, Luis Gil will get the start, entering with a 1-1 record and 4.26 ERA. Gil has been sharp over his last two starts, allowing just two earned runs through 10.1 innings. New York will need to be patient when facing Gore this evening, who owns a 10.75 K/9 this season. The Yankees will look to disrupt Gore’s rhythm to get him out of the game early on so they can take advantage of a Nationals bullpen that has the leagues-worst ERA, sitting at 5.60 on the season. This should be an exciting matchup, but I think the Yankees bats will be too much for Gore to handle and the Yankees will take on a few more runs against the Nationals bullpen, making New York my best bet of the day. 

Nationals vs Yankees prediction: Yankees -1.5 (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays tee it up again on Tuesday night. The Blue Jays continue to maintain a 5-game lead in the AL East, and with each passing week, that 5-game lead looks larger and larger. The Twins, meanwhile, are just begging for the season to end. They have now lost 6 of their last 7 and 10 of 11, including getting walloped last night, 10-4. I am sure they are going to win a few games here and there, but they are a team I am looking to pick on as often as I can down the stretch. The profit here is minimal, but this is a spot where I am willing to just take what should be an easy win. Give me the Blue Jays on the Money Line.

The pitching matchup is not necessarily an advantage for Toronto. Chris Bassitt takes the hill, and at 36 years old, the Jays just want 5 respectable innings out of him. He has been walking people and giving up homers lately, and that needs to stop, but Minnesota can cure a lot of pitching struggles. Bailey Ober has thrown much better lately for the Twins, but he is only a month removed from a stretch where he gave up 7 runs in 3 of 4 starts, and the last time he saw the Blue Jays, they plated 5 on him. The Blue Jays are hitting well, and they just keep finding ways to win. I am riding that.

Twins vs Blue Jays prediction: Blue Jays ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After jumping out to an early 3-0 lead, the Mets’ offense exploded, putting up 13 runs over the last five innings of the game. The Phillies currently hold a six-game lead in the NL East, and this is a series they’re looking to win as they try to keep their division rivals out of the playoff race. The Mets bats have been red-hot as of late, averaging  7.1 runs per game over their last 10, while the Phillies are slightly behind, averaging 6.2 runs per game. 

Taking the mound for the Phillies will be the left-hander Jesus Luzardo, who enters with a 12-6 record and 4.10 ERA. Luzardo has had his ups and downs this season, but it looks like he’s found his groove again, going 4-1 with a 2.32 ERA and has struck out 34 batters in his last 31 innings pitched. For the Mets, Sean Manaea will get the start, entering with a 1-2 record and 5.15 ERA. Manaea started this season off strong, but has struggled lately, going 0-1 with a 7.91 ERA in his last four starts. Luzardo has already picked up one victory against the Mets this year, and I think the Phillies will rebound in a big way against the Mets tonight, making them my best bet of the day. 

Phillies vs Mets prediction: Phillies ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks turn to Brandon Pfaadt, who has been serviceable yet inconsistent this season with a 12–8 record, 4.95 ERA, and 1.34 WHIP across 26 starts. His last outing showed his upside as he worked seven strong innings against Cleveland, allowing just two runs on five hits. Arizona’s lineup has the ability to support him with power, ranking third in the majors in slugging percentage (.438) and top five in home runs (183). Ketel Marte remains the anchor of the order, while Geraldo Perdomo and Corbin Carroll have added timely production. Still, this is a team that can be held in check when facing pitchers who attack the zone with confidence, as they rely heavily on extra base power rather than consistent contact.

For Milwaukee, Jacob Misiorowski gets the ball, a rookie who has already flashed electric potential. He carries a 4.19 ERA and 55 strikeouts in just under 40 innings, highlighted by a zero hit debut and six perfect innings in his second start. Though he’s shown some regression lately, Misiorowski’s velocity and swing and miss stuff give him the ability to navigate even power heavy lineups like Arizona’s. The Brewers’ offense has been opportunistic but not overpowering, leaning more on manufacturing runs than outslugging opponents. With Pfaadt capable of bouncing between quality starts and rocky outings, and Misiorowski showing both brilliance and growing pains, this matchup shapes up as one where the pitchers have a real chance to control the game. Given the balance of high strikeout potential against lineups that can be streaky, the best look is the under.

Dbacks vs Brewers Prediction: Under 8 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number

The Kansas City Royals need to scoop up all the “easy” wins they can find as the regular season winds down. They currently sit 4 games back from the final wild card spot in the American League and are hoping to make one final push to squeeze into postseason play. Today they take on the Chicago White Sox who have been the bottom feeders of the AL for a few seasons now. Look for Kansas City to come out fired up and I expect a multi-run victory for the club.

Michael Lorenzen is set to start for Kansas City as the swingman looks to rebound from an iffy outing against the Rangers in his last appearance. Lorenzen is an innings eater, but his volume has been trimmed down of late as the Royals have leaned more on their backend pieces. Martin Perez is set to start for the White Sox and despite 8.2 innings of 2-run ball this month I am still not overly fond of the southpaw in his age 34 season. Perez began to see decline in his performance preinjury, and I don’t expect much from him in this spot.

Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox prediction: Royals -1.5 (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120 odds.

Prior to last night’s meeting, the last time these teams saw each other resulted in a Pirates sweep in which the Cardinals didn’t score a single run over 3 games. The Cardinals have revenge on their minds, and they started the series on the right foot with a 7-6 win on Monday night. Andre Pallante hasn’t been given much run support in recent starts, but that could change as the Cardinals go up against Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller. August has not been kind to Keller, who owns a 9.00 ERA and .359 BAA through 4 starts so far this month. The Pirates are 2-2 in those 4 games, but as Keller continues to put his team in a difficult position, the Cardinals could have the advantage offensively.

The Pirates have been an extremely streaky team in the second half. So far in August, Pittsburgh dropped 7 of 8 games from Aug. 9-17 before winning 5 of 7 from Aug. 18-25. They dropped the series opener last night, and could have a tough time finding the win column in Tuesday’s matchup with Keller on the mound. Playing at home, look for the Cardinals to pickup a second consecutive win over the Pirates in this one.

Pirates vs Cardinals prediction: Cardinals ML (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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While not my favorite game to target from a betting perspective on Tuesday’s slate of games, I do lean towards the Angels grabbing a win over the Rangers. Los Angeles and Texas are both going to miss out on postseason play in 2025, but both teams have young pieces they would like to continue developing as they transition into 2026. Today’s matchup presents southpaw starting pitchers from both sides, as Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Angels while Patrick Corbin takes the ball for Texas.

Kikuchi fired 7 innings of 1-run ball against the Reds in his last outing, lowering his season-long ERA to 3.42 through 150 innings of work. The southpaw hurler has had a successful first season in Anaheim despite some poor outings along the way. He is my preferred starting option in this matchup. Corbin entered this month with his ERA at 3.78 but 17 earned runs allowed in 13.2 innings so far during August has raised that mark to 4.61 entering today’s start. Look for his struggles to continue in this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers prediction: Angels ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

I expect the Houston Astros to roll in their matchup against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday. Houston is turning to Hunter Brown as the right-hander looks to make his 26th start of the season. Brown has been dominant as a whole in 2025, posting a 2.36 ERA through his first 149 frames of work. The right-hander has amassed 170 strikeouts with only 12 home runs allowed in that span. His last outing resulted in 6 scoreless innings against the Tigers and in his last 30 innings he has allowed just 5 earned runs.

Tanner Gordon is set to start for the Rockies, marking his 10th start of the season. The right-hander has recorded only 27 strikeouts in his first 44.1 innings pitched, allowing 35 earned runs with 4 unearned runs crossing the plate along the way as well. Gordon’s 7.11 ERA is not a mark he hoped to hold at this point in the season. He did deliver a solid outing in his last start against the Dodgers, but I am not willing to bet on that happening again against a quality lineup given his track record.

Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros prediction: Astros -1.5 (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

In this game, we will see the San Diego Padres take on the Seattle Mariners. The Padres are fighting for 1^st place in their division while the Mariners are fighting for a wild card spot. On the mound today, we have Dylan Cease of the Padres and Luis Castillo of the Mariners. Both pitchers have been struggling, with Cease giving up 7 runs in his last 2 starts and Castillo giving up 9 runs in his last 2 starts. Where these 2 differ is in their splits on the season. In away games, Cease has a 5.65 ERA giving up 64 hits and 41 runs in 65.1 innings. Cease also holds a record of 0-8 in away games this season. Castillo on the other hand, has a 2.41 home ERA giving up 61 hits and 22 runs through 82 innings pitched. With numbers like this, the location of this game makes a world of a difference.

Outside of the starting pitchers, the Padres hold the edge in hitting statistics on the season. What is surprising, is that the Mariners hold the worst home batting average in the MLB (.223) but have a home record of 40-26. These numbers show how impressive their pitching is at T-Mobile Park. Speaking of pitching, we saw the Padres bullpen give up 6 runs in the final game with the Los Angeles Dodgers and 5 runs again last night. These bullpen struggles are not common in San Diego, but I have no reason to believe they will stop today. Overall, I suspect that the Mariners pitching will be too much for the Padres to handle. I am taking the Mariners to get the win.

Padres vs. Mariners Prediction: Mariners ML (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Cubs hand the ball to veteran left hander Matthew Boyd, who has quietly been one of the most effective starters in the National League this season. Boyd enters with a strong 12–6 record, 2.61 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP, while consistently limiting hard contact with an average exit velocity against of just 88.2 mph. His ability to control innings was on full display in his recent outing against the Yankees, where he fired eight scoreless frames, scattering four hits with no walks and striking out six. With Chicago’s defense supporting his ground ball tendencies and a lineup capable of manufacturing early runs, the Cubs are in a strong position to strike first. Their offense has been steady of late, with a balanced mix of power and contact hitters giving Boyd the support he needs to work confidently in the early innings.

The Giants counter with Justin Verlander, the future Hall of Famer who has endured a difficult season. Through 22 starts, he owns a 1–10 record and 4.64 ERA, numbers that reflect his inconsistency and decline from peak form. While Verlander has flashed vintage moments and recently surpassed 3,500 career strikeouts, too often he has struggled with command and elevated pitch counts, preventing him from working deep into games. That puts added pressure on a Giants lineup that has been inconsistent and often slow to produce runs against quality pitching. With Boyd in strong form and Verlander struggling to regain rhythm, the advantage early tilts toward Chicago.

Cubs vs Giants Prediction: Cubs F5 ML (-135) available at time of publishing. Playable to -145

The Tigers and Athletics are set for a Tuesday afternoon matchup at Sutter Health Park. Detroit will send veteran right-hander Charlie Morton to the mound. Morton has been better with Detroit than he was during his tenure with Baltimore this season, but he has still struggled with consistency. He has issued 6 walks in his last 2 outings, and owns a 5.17 ERA when pitching on the road this season. He could have his hands full with an Athletics lineup that is swinging the bat well right now. So far in August, the Athletics have scored 118 runs over 22 games, which ranks fifth in all of baseball.

On the other side, Osvaldo Bido will get the start on the mound for the home team. He’s seen work both as a starter and a reliever this season, and will be making his tenth start and 20th overall appearance. Opponents are hitting a strong .329 against him at home, and Detroit’s lineup is in a groove. Detroit is scoring nearly 6 runs per game over its last 10 contests, so they should be able to give Bido some issues. Even with a high total, back the over in this one.

Tigers vs Athletics prediction: Over 11 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

The final game of the Tuesday slate is the Cincinnati Reds vs the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Reds have been on a grueling road trip, which came at a terrible time for a team that was on the verge of clawing its way into the playoff picture. But west coast swings seem to always treat the Reds poorly, and they have now lost 4 of the last 5 games. They have that strange streak going where they have not been swept all season, but you can’t make the playoffs winning 1 of 3 every series, and that is the Reds right now. They are playing poorly. Meanwhile, the Dodgers look like they are rounding into form for the stretch run, as their pitching is starting to get healthy and the bats are waking up. The Dodgers don’t care if they win 120 games; they care if they are winning in September and October. After winning 7-0 last night, I think the Dodgers may smash again. Give me LA to cover at plus money.

The Reds will throw Nick Martinez. He is an on again, off again starter who is mildly effective but nothing special, and he usually has a low pitch count. That puts a lot of pressure on a bullpen that has been very shaky lately. The Dodgers will start future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw. Although Kershaw has been pitching since the era of the dinosaurs, the Reds are so young that almost none of them have faced him before. In fact, no projected starter has logged more than 3 or 4 at-bats against Kershaw. I’m telling you, the Reds are going to roll over a dozen curveballs and just ground out over and over. As long as the Dodger offense doesn’t take the night off, this should be another decisive win for LA.

Reds vs Dodgers Prediction: Dodgers -1.5 (+115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.