MLB Picks

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs are tied 1-1 in this series heading into Saturday afternoon’s contest at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Pittsburgh prevailed 2-1 in 10 innings on Friday, but it doesn’t take a genius to figure out why that game was so low scoring. Paul Skenes was on the mound for the visitors. With more hittable pitchers toeing the rubber for this one, my Pirates vs Cubs pick is Over 7.5.

Chicago should have much more success against Mike Burrows, who comes in with a 5.00 ERA and an anemic 17-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18.0 innings of work. The Cubs are countering with Matthew Boyd, who is solid but unspectacular. He faced the Pirates on April 30 and was mediocre, allowing 2 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 5.0 innings. It’s true that Pittsburgh’s offense is underwhelming, but it did manage to score 17 runs in a recent 3-game series against Miami. The Cubs’ bats have been somewhat cool, but that is an aberration as opposed to the season-long rule. They are #2 in Major League Baseball in runs scored with 380, trailing only the Dodgers.

Pirates vs Cubs prediction: Over 7.5 (-119) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Phillies dominated the first game of this series with an 8-0 win on Friday night. Now, the Phillies and Blue Jays are set for a Saturday afternoon matchup at Citizens Bank Park. Despite laying an egg last night, the Blue Jays could be in a decent position to bounce back at the plate tonight. Toronto has excelled against left-handed pitching so far this season, and they will face the left-handed Christopher Sanchez for Philadelphia. The Blue Jays are hitting .269 as a team against southpaws, which is good for 3rd-best in baseball. Sanchez faced the Blue Jays earlier this month on June 3, and while he tossed 6 innings of 1-run ball, Toronto should be able to put together a better approach having seen him less than 2 weeks ago.

Philadelphia could also be in a solid position at the plate. Toronto’s Bowden Francis owns a less-than-stellar 6.12 ERA on the season, and opponents are hitting .293 with a .922 OPS against him. He’s allowed 10 earned runs over his last 2 outings, and he hasn’t been able to pitch deep into games on a consistent basis. The Phillies are locked in at the plate right now, having scored 15 runs over their last 2 games. All in all, this could be a high-scoring affair. Look to the over.

Blue Jays vs Phillies prediction: Over 8.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

The division-leading Chicago Cubs are set to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates for the 5th time this season on Friday afternoon. Chicago has won the first game of this series and 3 of the first 4 matchups on the season, but I am siding with the Pirates today as they hold a clear edge in the starting pitcher department. Pittsburgh will start Paul Skenes who is in the midst of a Cy Young contending season, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 91 innings of work. Skenes has 92 strikeouts to only 20 walks issued during that sample of time and his efficiency helps him work deep into games. While he is essentially the new Jacob deGrom, pitching extremely effectively while receiving very little run support, I do expect some runs from the Pirates today.

Cade Horton will take the mound for the Cubs and I am not entirely sold on him at this point in his career. The 23-year-old right-hander has been serviceable with a 4.11 ERA in his first 30.2 innings of work, but his last outing resulted in 9 base runners and 4 earned runs across 5 innings against the Tigers. Pittsburgh is not as strong offensively as Detroit is, but they shouldn’t need an overabundance of runs with Skenes on the mound.

Pirates vs Cubs prediction: Pittsburgh ML (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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In this game the Miami Marlins will face the Washington Nationals for the fourth time this season. So far the Marlins lead the series 2-1. On the mound are Edward Cabrera of the Marlins and Mitchell Parker of the Nationals. This is a rematch of a game earlier this season in which the Nationals were able to win thanks to some bad bullpen play by the Marlins. For Cabrera, he comes into this game in very good form. He has only given up 1 earned run in his last 15.1 innings. Additionally, in his last 6 starts he has only given up more than 2 earned runs once. These pitching numbers are great for a Marlins starter and should give them some confidence going up against a Nationals team that is batting .193 over the past 6 games and has only scored 11 runs in that time.

For the Nationals, Parker started the season in great form but has cooled off significantly in his last 7 starts. During this stretch he has pitched 32.2 innings giving up 35 hits and 24 earned runs. These pitching numbers do not make us feel confident in the Nationals, and making matters worse is that their bullpen holds an ERA of 5.70 on the year. Part of the reason they lost 2 of the 3 games to the Marlins previously was due to poor bullpen play. The Nationals are also riding a 5-game losing streak into today’s matchup. Given the positive form of Cabrera, the lack of hitting for the Nationals, and the Marlins getting a day off prior to this one, I am siding with the Marlins to win.

Marlins vs Nationals prediction: Miami ML (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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We head to Citizens Bank Park on Friday for a Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. The Blue Jays appear to be on the front end of a hot streak, as they come to town fresh off a sweep of the Cardinals. The Jays are starting to score a bit more, and their pitching has settled down lately. The Phillies are still playing without Bryce Harper, although they did win 2 out of 3 with the Cubs after getting swept by the Pirates (yeah, I don’t understand that either; baseball is weird). On Friday, I am looking to the Blue Jays to pull off the plus-money upset.

On the mound will be Kevin Gausman and Ranger Suarez. Gausman appears to really be showing his age this year, and he has not been at all sharp. Suarez, on the other hand, has been in great form lately. I’m betting that both guys are due for some change. It is also noteworthy that the Blue Jays are one of the better teams in baseball against lefty-handed pitching, as they can stack a lineup basically full of right-handed sticks. I think this is a spot where a hot team stays hot. Give me the Blue Jays in this one.

Blue Jays vs Phillies prediction: Toronto ML (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Angels are in Baltimore to begin a 3-game weekend series against the Orioles at Camden Yards on Friday night. The total for this matchup is all the way up at 10.5, most likely due to the struggles of both starting pitchers so far this season. Charlie Morton will take the mound for Baltimore, and he owns a 6.59 ERA through 56 innings this season. He put together a decent May, but is coming off a start in which he last just 2.1 innings after giving up 6 hits and 4 earned runs to the Athletics. The veteran right-hander will face a Los Angeles lineup that has been better on the road than at home. More specifically, the Angels’ team OPS goes from .654 at home to .723 on the road.

On the other side, Los Angeles will send Jack Kochanowicz to the mound. The 24-year-old left-hander has allowed 4 runs in each of his last 4 starts, and owns a less-than-stellar 5.61 ERA through 67.1 innings on the year. Opponents boast an OPS of .830 against him, and while the Baltimore offense hasn’t been elite, they have been much better over the past few weeks. All in all, both offenses seem to be in decent positions to do some damage. Look to the over with this high total.

Angels vs Orioles prediction: Over 10.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

Nick Martinez gets the start for Cincinnati, looking to build on a solid stretch that’s seen him post a 3.70 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 44.2 innings this season. The veteran right-hander has allowed just 2 runs in his last 8.0 innings, showing improved command and efficiency. Offensively, the Reds heated up for a stretch — erupting for 13 runs in a recent win over Arizona. Since then they have tallied 14 runs over the next 4 games. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Tyler Stephenson and Spencer Steer have provided timely power, while Elly De La Cruz continues to be a disruptive force on the basepaths. Cincinnati’s recent surge has made it one of the more dangerous teams in the National League when locked in early.

The Tigers counter with lefty Brant Hurter, who will likely serve as an opener before turning it over to Detroit’s strong bullpen. Hurter has been sharp in limited action, posting a 1.75 ERA and 0.94 WHIP across 36 innings, while recent bulk reliever Keider Montero has also impressed in extended outings. Detroit owns the best record in the majors (44–24) behind a well-rounded lineup and clutch performances from Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Javier Báez. Despite their offensive firepower, the Tigers have thrived in tight, low-scoring games thanks to pitching depth. I lean for the Tigers to open up the set with a win, but I like the under better. With both teams showing sharp form on the mound, expect a tight, low-scoring start.

Reds vs Tigers prediction: F5 Under 4.5 (-118) available at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

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The Yankees head into their next series with 1 thing on their mind: getting revenge against their AL East rivals. The Red Sox took 2 out of 3 games at Yankee Stadium last weekend and New York will be looking to tighten up its pitching after surrendering 27 runs in that series. Taking the mound for the Yankees will be Ryan Yarbrough, who is 3-1 with a 4.17 ERA this season and coming off his first loss of the year — which came against Boston (allowed 8 runs on 9 hits over 4.0 innings).

For the Red Sox, Garrett Crochet will take the mound and he is 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA. Crochet also struggled in his last start against the Yankees, allowing 5 earned runs in 6.0 innings pitched, but he still managed to earn the win. Both teams are coming off series wins, and the Red Sox want nothing more than to get back above .500 after this 3-game series against the Yankees. With both pitchers struggling in their previous starts and with both teams being second and third in runs scored over their last 6 games (Yankees at 6.7 per game, Red Sox at 7), I’m backing the over as my best bet of the day.

Yankees vs Red Sox prediction: Over 8.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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I favor the under in Friday’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets. The posted total sits at 8 for this matchup with Taj Bradley and Clay Holmes starting for their respective clubs. Bradley benefits from avoiding his hitter-friendly home ballpark in this outing, pitching in New York instead of Florida. He is an inconsistent but extremely talented arm capable of performing in any outing and any matchup. The Mets are a tough lineup but I expect Bradley to pitch well in the first handful of innings before the bullpen takes over.

Holmes has found success this season converting from a relief role with the Yankees to a starting role with the Mets. The veteran right-hander has a 2.95 ERA in his first 73.1 innings with the club following 6 innings of 1-run ball in Coors during his last start. While he faced a weak Rockies lineup in that outing, it was still impressive seeing him face the same lineup for the 2nd straight start in hitter-friendly conditions.

Mets vs Rays prediction: Under 8 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

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The Rangers welcome the White Sox to town after winning 4 of their last 5 games. The offense came alive for the Rangers to close out their 9-game road trip, as they scored 16 runs on Thursday against the Twins. Texas is slowly creeping back up toward the .500 mark,and manager Bruce Bochy’s squad has a great opportunity to get even closer on Friday night. Only the Rockies have fewer wins on the season than the White Sox, and Chicago is just 7-28 on the road so far this season.

As of this publishing, a starter has not been named for the Rangers. It’s likely they roll with a bullpen game, and Texas’ bullpen ERA of 3.46 is 8th-best in baseball. The White Sox are hitting just .221 with a .629 OPS on the road so far this season, both of which rank at the bottom of the league. Adrian Houser has posted solid numbers for the White Sox through 4 starts and 24.1 innings, but he could be due for some regression. His ERA of 1.48 is much lower than his xERA of 3.22, and he ranks in the bottom 6% of the league in terms of hard-hit rate. Look for Texas to be ready to do some damage. Consider backing the Rangers on the run line at home.

White Sox vs Rangers prediction: Texas -1.5 (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +105.

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The Minnesota Twins enter this matchup looking to continue their strong play as underdogs behind right-hander Chris Paddack, who has quietly been one of the more reliable arms in their rotation. Paddack owns a 3.53 ERA and has delivered 11 straight outings of at least 5.0 innings, including 2 consecutive quality starts. He’s been particularly effective in night games as well. The Twins’ offense has been steady in June, led by a red-hot Byron Buxton (.357 AVG, 1.044 OPS this month), giving Minnesota the kind of lineup depth that can pressure opposing pitching even without fireworks. With a well-balanced attack and a starter who can work deep into games, Minnesota looks well-positioned to grind out a low-scoring win…especially coming fresh off a 16-3 loss yesterday.

The Houston Astros counter with rookie lefty Colton Gordon, who has yet to notch a quality start through 6 MLB appearances. While he’s shown durability by logging five innings in each outing, his 5.11 ERA and tendency to allow early runs have put Houston in tight spots. Offensively, the Astros haven’t found consistent rhythm, averaging around four runs per game and struggling to generate momentum at home. Though still above .500, Houston has underwhelmed in close contests this season. With the Astros’ bullpen seeing increased usage and Gordon still adjusting to the big leagues, Houston could be vulnerable in what profiles as a tight game.

Twins vs Astros prediction: Minnesota ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

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The St. Louis Cardinals enter this matchup desperate to snap a 5-game losing streak, and they will hand the ball to Erick Fedde, who’s been one of their most consistent arms. Despite not earning a win since May 9, Fedde has quietly posted a 2.63 ERA over his last 7 starts, keeping the Cardinals in games even as the offense struggles to find traction. The team was blanked 6-0 in the series opener to Milwaukee, but manager Oliver Marmol maintains that the clubhouse remains upbeat. A turnaround feels due, and given the Cardinals’ historical success against tonight’s opposing pitcher, this could be their best shot to get back on track.

The Milwaukee Brewers will counter with Freddy Peralta, who has been sharp overall this season with a 5-4 record and 2.69 ERA, but he’s had up and down starts against the Cardinals throughout his career. In 15 starts against St. Louis, Peralta holds a 4-6 record and a 4.91 ERA, often finding trouble navigating their lineup. The Brewers took Game 1 of the series behind a stellar outing from rookie Tobias Myers, but the offense remains inconsistent, averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last 5. Milwaukee will look to lean on their pitching again, but with Peralta’s track record versus the Cards, there’s reason to believe St. Louis could strike back tonight.

Cardinals vs Brewers prediction: St. Louis ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120.

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I like the under in Friday’s matchup between the Athletics and the Royals. Kansas City will start Michael Wacha in this game and the veteran right-hander is fresh off a quality start against the Chicago White Sox. Wacha has pitched well overall this season, posting a 3.01 ERA in his first 74.2 innings of work. He is an efficient arm capable of working deep into games and I expect a long start from him today against an impatient and inconsistent Athletics lineup.

Luis Severino is more of a wild-card when it comes to his results this season, but his splits are drastically different when comparing his performance at home vs on the road. His home park has been a detriment to his success, as Severino has yet to find a groove in that minor league stadium. On the road it has been another story, however, with Sevvy posting a 0.87 ERA in 5 road starts spanning 31 innings. Kansas City has been cold at the plate and I lean towards the under in this game.

Royals vs Athletics prediction: Under 8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120. 

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The Friday night slate takes us to the desert for our San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks prediction. Both teams were off Thursday, so we should have fresh arms and full lineups tonight. The Padres lost 2 of 3 to the Dodgers earlier in the week, but they have been playing well otherwise. The D-Backs are wild and unpredictable to be exactly .500. They just swept the Mariners, but they were swept by the Reds before that, and they swept the Braves before that. Who knows what you get from them? But my Padres vs Diamondbacks best bet is the visitors on the money line, as this plus-money bet is too good to pass up.

The D-Backs are favored in this game for a couple of reasons: they are at home and they crush right-handed pitching. Still, I think the rest of the stats and trends should favor the Padres. Stephen Kolek has turned in consecutive scoreless outings, and while he almost certainly won’t continue that streak at Arizona, he is still better than Ryne Nelson. Nelson has spent most of the season on long relief duty, but he returned to the rotation after Corbin Burnes blew an elbow. Nelson is not good, and he was blasted for 7 runs in 3 innings vs the Reds last time out. Once the starters leave, the Padres boast the third-best bullpen ERA — almost 2 full runs better than the D-Backs, who are fourth worst in the league. If this is close in the last few innings, the Padres should take it. Can we get some late-inning magic one time for a plus-money win? That’s where I am living tonight.

Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction: San Diego ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cleveland Guardians hit the road to start a 9-game West Coast road trip. The Guardians are looking to win a series for the first time since May 30-June 1, as the Guardians have posted a 3-6 mark in the past 9 games while losing the past 3 series in a row. Cleveland dropped 2 of 3 in its most recent road trip against the New York Yankees while going just 5-7 in the past 12 games away from home. The Guardians will use RHP Gavin Williams, who is 5-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. However, he is much less effective on the road — posting a 4.38 ERA across 24.2 innings in such situations.

The Mariners have been skidding hard lately, including a 3-game sweep at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks earlier this weekend. They were 1-5 in the 6-game road trip and are 1-8 in the past 9 games (4-13 in the past 17). RHP Luis Castillo is a dangerous pitcher for Seattle, however, posting a 3.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP — which is not good news for the Guardians. He is especially tough at home, posting a 2.25 ERA with a .209 opponent batting average. Look for the M’s to get off to a good start in this series opener.

Guardians vs Mariners prediction: Seattle ML (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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Logan Webb takes the mound for the Giants as they open a pivotal series against the division-leading Dodgers. Webb has been one of MLB’s most consistent starters this season, carrying a 2.58 ERA while limiting opponents to three runs or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts. His command and ability to generate ground balls remain elite, but the Giants offense hasn’t consistently backed him. San Francisco enters hitting just .233 as a team, with middling power numbers and struggles on the road. With the Dodgers’ potent lineup waiting, the Giants will need Webb to be nearly flawless to stay competitive. He might carry San Fran into the 7th inning or beyond but the bullpen is overworked right now with not many arms available…and the ones that can throw are one one day of rest.

On the other side, Yoshinobu Yamamoto continues to prove why he was such a prized international signing. With a 6-4 record and a 2.20 ERA, the right-hander has been dominant in his debut MLB campaign, showcasing exceptional control and a devastating splitter that keeps hitters off balance. Backing him is a Dodgers offense that ranks among the league’s best in average and OPS, led by stars like Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts. The Dodgers are 23-11 at home and have the clear edge both on the mound and at the plate. With Yamamoto dealing and L.A.’s deep lineup providing support, the smart play is on the Dodgers’ money line. I’m expecting this to be a close game until the bullpens come into play.

Giants vs Dodgers prediction: Los Angeles ML (-180) available at time of publishing. Playable to -200.

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