Ricky Dimon
The week in Major League Baseball continues with a full 15-game schedule on Saturday. It includes Cubs vs Yankees, Mariners vs Tigers, Dodgers vs Giants and Rays vs Red Sox. The YRFI/NRFI market is extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
I have been in fine form so far this season, with a 49-33-2 record on best bets while going 4-for-9 on Same Game Parlays at +481, +632, +439 and +600 odds and 8-6 on YRFI/NRFI plays.
Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI bets for Saturday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
Miami Marlins vs Baltimore Orioles: NRFI (-111)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Baltimore is the fourth-worst YRFI team in the business, scoring a run in the first inning in just 23.7 percent of its games. That number does not figure to improve with Janson Junk on the mound for Miami. Junk is sporting a 3.12 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP while making a smooth transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation. As a former reliever, he knows a thing or two about coming in and putting up zeroes right away. Look for him to do that in the first inning against the Orioles on Saturday.
The O’s are countering with Trevor Rogers, who is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through 5 appearances this season. In his most recent start last weekend, Rogers blanked the Braves in 6.2 innings of work. The southpaw has not surrendered a first-inning run this entire year. It’s also worth noting that there is very little familiarity between lineups and pitchers. Nobody on Miami’s active roster has ever gotten a hit off Rogers; no one on the Orioles has gotten more than 1 hit off Junk.
Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds: YRFI (-111)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
It should be a much different story when Colorado visits Cincinnati. Whereas both the Marlins and Orioles are #23 league wide or worse in YRFI percentage, the Reds come in at #8 in first-inning run percentage (31.9). They now face Rockies starter Bradley Blalock, who is 0-2 with a…wait for it…12.94 ERA. It’s going to be tough to recover from his outing last Saturday, when he gave up 12 runs (all earned) on 13 hits during a 21-0 loss to the Padres. Five of those runs came in the first.
The Rockies are much less reliable for a run right away, but the top of their lineup has had some success – albeit in a very limited sample size – against Brady Singer. Tyler Freeman is 1-for-2; Mickey Moniak is 2-for-3 with a double; Michael Toglia is 1-for-2 with 2 walks. Singer is sporting a 4.32 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, so he is far from lights out. Count on at least 1 of these 2 teams crossing the plate in the opening frame this afternoon.
