Ricky Dimon
The week in Major League Baseball continues with a 14-game slate on Wednesday. It includes Mariners vs Phillies, Astros vs Tigers, Yankees vs Rays and Brewers vs Cubs. The YRFI/NRFI market is extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning. With that in mind, let’s get into my YRFI/NRFI best bets for Wednesday, August 20, while you can also find out all of our MLB picks for EVERY GAME today.
YRFI/NRFI best bet: Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies – YRFI (-111)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Phillies are going for a sweep after winning a pair of high-scoring affairs – 12-7 in the opener and 6-4 on Tuesday. Philly has scored 7 runs in the first 2 innings over the past 2 games, so they are no strangers to starting fast. Don’t be surprised if they do the same in the finale against Seattle’s Luis Castillo. Kyle Schwarber is 6-for-20 lifetime against Castillo with 4 home runs and 2 doubles. Trea Turner is on fire for the Phillies. Turner has delivered 5 multi-hit performances in the last 6 contests. So far in this series, he is 5-for-9 with a homer and 5 RBIs. The Phillies rank #6 league-wide in first-inning runs, scoring 32.0 percent of the time.
Philadelphia is countering with Jesus Luzardo, who has been awful at home in recent weeks. In his last 4 starts at Citizens Bank Park, the southpaw has surrendered 19 runs (18 earned) across 17.2 innings of work. The Mariners score a first-inning run 37.5 percent of their road outings compared to 19.4 percent at home.
YRFI/NRFI prediction: New York Mets vs Washington Nationals – NRFI (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Kodai Senga is taking the mound, which is good news for New York. The right-hander comes in with a 7-4 record and 2.35 ERA. His road ERA is a sparkling 2.19. Senga has made 8 consecutive starts without allowing a first-inning run. He now faces a Washington squad that has scored 2 runs or fewer in 3 of its last 4 games.
The Mets may be more dangerous, but there is a lot to like about their chances of being blanked in the opening frame. New York scores a first-inning run just 23.3 percent of the time on the road compared to a 35.9 percent mark at Citi Field. Brad Lord (3.26 ERA) has made 5 starts without surrendering a first-inning run since rejoining the Nationals’ rotation. The righty has been spectacular on the road in 2025, sporting a 2.54 ERA and a .220 opponent batting average.
