Monday Night Football Predictions: Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers Expert Picks, Odds & Best Bets for Week 15

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) look up during the game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.

Caleb Wilfinger

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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Dolphins vs Steelers predictions & NFL MNF picks

Chris Farley’s Dolphins vs Steelers spread pick: Steelers -3 (-110)

The Dolphins and Steelers both experienced success in Week 14, although one performance was undoubtedly more impressive than the other. At the Meadowlands, Miami benefited from an early Tyrod Taylor exit in the first quarter, so the Jets were forced to roll out 24-year-old Brady Cook, who had zero prior experience playing in the NFL. Needless to say, the Dolphins took advantage and ran the ball for 239 yards on New York, dominating time of possession and controlling the game after jumping out to a 21-7 lead in the first 15 minutes. For another week, Mike McDaniel, Tua Tagovailoa and company survived again, now 6-7 and still in the AFC playoff race. Last Sunday marked their 4th victory in a row, although it’s worth noting that their last 3 victories came against some of the NFL’s worst outfits (WAS, NO, NYJ).

For Tagovailoa, the win was more significant because it was in the cold. Previously, the former Alabama quarterback was 0-7 in NFL games in which the temperature hit 46 degrees or less. Monday night will present an entirely different scenario than what he experienced last week in Jersey.

The Steelers are coming off arguably their most complete game of the season, holding off the Ravens in Baltimore last Sunday. Baltimore gained 420 yards against Pittsburgh’s defense, but half of that production (210 yards) came in the fourth quarter when they were playing catch-up. Aaron Rodgers had a very clean game and despite his offense lacking a rushing attack (34 total yards), Pittsburgh’s pesky defense came through when it mattered. The Ravens were just 2-6 In the red-zone.

Pittsburgh is forecasted to be around 20°F at kickoff on Monday night, which is an element we absolutely hate for Tua. We have seen this story too many times, and it’s the type of game where TJ Watt and the Steelers’ defense can thrive. We also don’t trust the Dolphins defense, which ranks a lowly 24th and EPA per pass. This is Steelers or nothing.

Chris Farley’s Dolphins vs Steelers total pick: Under 41.5 (-110)

The once prolific Miami Dolphins’ offense is a shell of itself at this point, although their rushing attack has held up their operation lately. Thanks to the talents of De’Von Achane, Miami has run for 197, 169, 164, and 239 in their last 4 games, all wins. The consistent production means they’re sitting at 7th in EPA per rush, but their passing attack is still far behind— 18th according to the same metrics.

Tua is also far too mistake-prone, ranked 31st in interceptions, which he tosses at a rate of 3.74%. The Steelers defense hasn’t been very good against opposing rushers, permitting 125.3 yards per game (21st), but they can also put all their focus on preventing the Dolphins ground attack. In short, we do not feel good about Miami’s chances when they have the ball.

This total will probably be decided when the Steelers have the ball, which is a little tougher to predict. Miami’s defense is average to below average, allowing 22.8 points (15th) and 334.5 yards per game (19th). The Steelers offense qualifies as equally sub-average, putting up 23.7 points (14th) and just 284.5 yards per game (27th). Rodgers is coming off one of his better games of the season, but the cold, bitter weather of Western Pennsylvania probably won’t help a 41-year-old quarterback, either. The home spot for Pittsburgh and a wintry environment means we can only look toward the under in this one.

Read NFL pro bettor Chris Farley’s full analysis for his Dolphins vs Steelers predictions for MNF

Dolphins vs Steelers player prop bets

Dolphins vs Steelers TD scorer best bet: Jaylen Warren (PIT) anytime touchdown scorer (+115)

Cold elements are expected to hit Pittsburgh on Monday Night – Advantage Pittsburgh and their run game. The split backfield between Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell is cause for concern, but Warren has still totaled 11+ touches in every game this season. He excels in making defenders miss and is a bowling ball in the red zone with 5 TDs inside the 20. A rush attempt line of 13.5 with vig on the over, calmly insinuating Warren will be a focal point against the underdog Dolphins, who have yet to be challenged over the last month with games versus the Jets, Saints, and Commanders. Expect Warren to run while playing from ahead and ultimately find the endzone for the 3rd time in 4 weeks.

Dolphins vs Steelers MNF TD scorer prediction: Greg Dulcich (MIA) anytime touchdown scorer (+600)

Greg Dulcich took advantage of a season-high 35 offensive snaps last week. He recorded 41 yards on three catches – His highest marks in 6 games played. Darren Waller will continue to get more looks in the Mike McDaniels offense, but more snaps, receptions, and yards last week are an encouraging sign. At +600 on BetMGM, it’s a price we’ll take a stab at for our second Dolphins vs Steelers TD scorer prediction.

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Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers Same Game Parlay

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Dolphins ML over Eagles (+140)

It is true that cold-weather situations are generally bad for the Dolphins, but they at least managed to beat the Jets in frigid temperatures last weekend. Miami rolled 34-10, building on previous victories over Buffalo (30-13), Washington and New Orleans. Tua Tagovailoa may never become a fan of these kinds of below-freezing conditions, but his team’s recent success at New York should give him confidence – plus he can rely on a dominant running game.

The Fins have churned out 197, 169, 164 and 239 yards on the ground in their past 4 contests. As for the Steelers, their offense doesn’t inspire any confidence in either the running or passing department. They are #14 in scoring (23.7 ppg) and #27 in total offense. Aaron Rodgers may be used to the cold, but it still won’t help his chances for success on Monday. Heck, the 41-year-old is underwhelming even in the best of conditions these days. Give me the visitors outright as they maintain their new-found momentum.

De’Von Achane to score a touchdown (-130)

Pittsburgh’s defense is decent, but it certainly isn’t anything special against the run. The Steelers are allowing 125.3 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry to go along with 10 touchdowns on the ground. Achane should be able to take advantage. The former Texas A&M standout has scored 11 TDs this season – 7 rushing and 4 receiving. All 7 of his rushing scores have come in the past 10 contests. Even at a relatively steep -130 price, Achane has good value to reach paydirt on Monday Night Football.

De’Von Achane to record 100+ rushing yards (+224)

Achane is reportedly good to go despite a minor rib issue. He left last week’s game early, but that was apparently just a precautionary measure. There is no reason to think that he will be anything less than 100 percent on Monday. Speaking of the game against the Jets, the Dolphins totally dominated up front and ran for 239 yards. Achane galloped for 92 yards on just 7 carries before departing. He was well on his way to what would have been his fourth consecutive outing with more than 100 rushing yards. Achane has run for at least 120 yards in 3 of the last 4 games and in 4 of the last 8.