Matt Selz
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The NASCAR Playoffs move on into the Round of 12. The first track up in the Round of 12? Texas Motor Speedway is playing host to the AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 400 on Sunday. It’s the first time this season the NASCAR Cup Series has been to Texas Motor Speedway which will make this an interesting race weekend. Not only is Texas a slightly different intermediate track than most of the others, but Goodyear is bringing new tires this week. With a lot on the line for NASCAR Playoffs, this might be the best chance to nab a win in this round. What does that mean for us as bettors? What are the strategies we’re looking at for Texas? Who are the predicted winning drivers? What are the best prop bets for Sunday’s race? All that is answered below.
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Betting Strategies For EchoPark Automotive 400
Texas is a 1.5-mile quad-oval track similar to Charlotte in layout. That being said, it’s different than Charlotte in how much track position matters. Like all other things in Texas…it’s king. This has long been a one groove track that’s nearly all full-throttle and one that tire wear doesn’t happen. Only twice in the last 10 races here has the winner come from outside the top-10 starting spots and if we go back 20 races, it’s only happened thrice. Get the picture? Moving up here comes to pit strategy more than car and so the teams with the better, cleaner, pit crews tend to make up for subpar speed on track. It’s also a track with fewer than normal numbers of cautions during the races. That really puts an emphasis on pit strategy to move up.
Winner Predictions For Texas NASCAR Race
Kyle Larson (+600 at BetMGM)
Larson is always fast here, it’s just a matter of if he finishes the race. Of late at Texas he’s either run in the top-five and won a few or flamed out and damaged the car. He’d love to punch his ticket to the Round of 8 straight off the bat and not have to pay attention to Talladega or the Charlotte Roval. We’ve seen him with shots to win at most of the intermediates and he’ll be a threat again on Sunday.
William Byron (+825 at BetMGM)
Byron, like Larson, has just been fast at intermediates. He’s won a couple of similar races this year. Along with that he’s been up front a bunch at Texas recently. Unlike Larson though, he’s been more consistent with his finishes at 1.5-mile race without as much car issues which makes this value is nice.
Martin Truex Jr. (+900 at FanDuel)
Truex has openly stated that he doesn’t want to have to worry about Talladega or the Roval as they are two bad tracks for him. That means, a guy who’s dominated at intermediates previously, will put a ton of effort into winning this weekend to make it a cleaner path to the Round of 8. The JGR cars have been good at 1.5-mile setups previously, so he should have a shot on Sunday again.
Ryan Blaney (+1300 at BetMGM)
Blaney dominated at Charlotte earlier in the year in the Coke 600, so why not now? Texas and Charlotte are similar tracks with similar setups and the same tire combos. Things haven’t been easy for Blaney most of this season but he has certainly shown speed in this package. If his pit crew doesn’t hurt him, he should be a threat on Sunday.
Brad Keselowski (+1600 at FanDuel)
The speed has been building in the RFK duo all season and now is the time to strike. Keselowki has been good at Texas previously and is looking for a win to make it through to the next round. We can also take Texas native Chris Buescher (+1400 FanDuel) but after him winning thrice this year, it’s Keselowski’s time to find victory lane for the team he owns.
Daniel Suarez (+6500 at FanDuel)
This one is a long shot. He’s considered this to be his home track of sorts, being the closest to where he grew up in Mexico. It’s also the only race his family typically comes to, if they come stateside, each year. Showing off for family is a narrative, but this also history. He’s done well here in the past with a couple of top-three finishes previously and has shown good speed in the 99-car at intermediates. Sure, he’s not in the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a shot to win, and at these odds we’ll take a shot that he can reach victory lane for the first time this year.
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EchoPark Automotive 400 Prop Bets
Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish (+240 at Caesars)
Why not hedge at good odds? We mentioned above about his good history at Texas and he’s been consistent in top-10 speed in this package.
William Byron Top-5 Finish (+130 at BetMGM)
This one is pretty simple. He’s fast everywhere with four top-fives in the last nine similar races. So the fact that we’re getting not just even odds but above that is good for us. He’s a threat to win but with that comes a top-five finish prop which he’s hit just about as often as anyone in the field at these tracks.
Martin Truex Jr Top-5 Finish (+150 at BetRivers)
We stated above that he is putting the most effort into this race in the Round of 12 so he doesn’t have to worry later on. Getting a top-five would give him more breathing room above the cutoff for sure. His average finish in the last nine similar races is 9.7 with three top-fives. That shows he’s close to top-five most races and all we need is a chance for it to happen.
Brad Keselowski Top-10 Finish (-120 at FanDuel)
Like above, we could take his teammate in Chris Buescher here too (-160 FanDuel) however, the return is nicer with Keselowski. They have had similar speed in this package much of the year and Keselowksi has the history to put him a tad ahead. That’s enough for me.
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