Matt Selz
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For a third week in a row we’re going short track racing, this time at a track that’s been at the heart of the NASCAR schedule since its inception. Martinsville, also known as The Paperclip, is the only track that’s been on the schedule every year since 1949. I’m burying the lede a bit, as Chase Elliott is back this week from his fractured tibia sustained in a snowboarding accident. That’s where all the buzz has been this week and for good reason. The buzz is akin to what we saw from Ross Chastain’s “Haul the Wall” move last fall at the end of the race.
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Martinsville track layout and betting strategy
The Paperclip is the shortest track on the NASCAR schedule but it’s arguably been the most action-packed track every year. If you thought you saw beating and banging at Richmond, or Phoenix, or even Bristol Dirt, you haven’t seen anything yet. Martinsville is notoriously tough to pass at without moving a guy off the line or — if all goes wrong — punting them into the corner. That being said though, winning from the front row is far from a guarantee.
The last time the pole-sitter won the race was back in the Spring of 2013. In the last 10 races here, a top-10 starting spot has produced the winner eight times but no one from the front row. Last Fall, the winner started P20, though the last time a winner came from that far back was both races in 2014. So what are we saying here? Well, starting spots matter for sure and locking down a top-10 one has boosted a driver’s shot to win of late, however just because a driver isn’t starting there doesn’t mean they can’t move up for props or outright winner bets.
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Martinsville race winner predictions
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Christopher Bell (+650)
Bell won the last time they raced here in 2022, and he moved up to do so. Bell started P20 in that race and using long-run speed and pit strategy he pulled off the win. Let’s not forget that his Crew Chief is Adam Stevens who was the longtime shot caller for Kyle Busch while he was dominating. Bell has been the most consistently fast Toyota since the middle of last year and that’s not changing anytime soon.
Ryan Blaney (+1100)
The results haven’t been there yet, sure. I know there’s a finite amount of times we can say that but hear me out. Blaney has seven top-fives here in the last 10 races and nine top-11s. He’s always in contention here no matter what has been going on elsewhere that season. He was in position to win last week before being spun late and finished P2 at Phoenix earlier this year. He has the speed to contend, Blaney just needs luck to start to turn his way.
Kevin Harvick (+2200)
Does anyone realize that Harvick has posted three top-nines in the three short tracks so far this year? Top-fives at Phoenix and Richmond and then a P9 last week in the Dirt. Now comes a track that he’s looked solid at for a very long time. Now, we need him to be more than solid obviously for this bet to hit but if he brings that top-five speed again and catches a break late, he could be getting a grandfather clock Sunday night. If you’re more comfortable with a top-five, he’s going off at +275 pre-qualifying.
Tyler Reddick (+3500)
Reddick’s record at Martinsville isn’t great to be fair. It’s not been a track he’s been able to figure out. However, aside from Chase Elliott, basically no one in the Chevy camp has been consistently good at this track of late. That gives us hope that Reddick, now in a Toyota, can turn things around and use the speed he’s shown this year to get things going at the ‘Clip. Reddick has posted two top-three finishes this year at Phoenix and Bristol Dirt while posting the fourth-best average run position of any driver in the field between the three short tracks, including Richmond. If he goes out and qualifies well, this line could get shorter so just be aware we could lose value here as Saturday rolls around.
Chase Briscoe (+4000)
Briscoe posted back-to-back top-10s here last year and has the fourth-best average finish in the field on short tracks this year. That makes him an interesting candidate for a long shot bet as a guy who combines recent good runs at the track with current speed.
Best prop bets for Martinsville
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Ryan Blaney Top-5 finish (+270)
How are we getting plus odds for a guy with seven top-fives in his last 10 races here? He’s only one of two drivers in the field to pull that off, Brad Keselowski being the other, and that’s been regardless of his results or bad luck elsewhere. Keep in mind he’s still been strong this year in terms of good finishes and could’ve won a few different times, again, this year. One last thing, he’s 11-1 to win, which means fair value for a top-5 would be +220 (11 divided by 5 for the 5 spots of finish position we’re getting). That means the +270 is actually a bit longer than fair value.
Christopher Bell (+100) over William Byron
The two drivers swapped wins here last year with Byron winning the Spring and Bell winning the Fall races. While Byron has the better historical record here, it’s really close in terms of average finish, average start, average running position, and average Driver Rating. So it comes down to trusting Bell more this year than Byron to this point with a nine spot better average finish on shorter tracks.
Bubba Wallace (+280) Group D Winner
Group D is quite the interesting one. He’s going against Daniel Suarez (+210), Ryan Preece (+280), and Austin Dillon (+280). Here’s the thing though, it’s not hard to pick Wallace. He’s quite a solid short track racer and the only other solid short tracker in the group, Preece, has to be concerned about payback from Kyle Larson. That makes Wallace the top choice here, not to mention his last two finishes here of P9 and P16 aren’t really matched by anyone in the group plus he has the best running position of the four this year on short tracks.
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