I went 2-1 with my 3 totals picks for Wednesday’s NBA Playoff games taking my record in these articles to 14-10, so let’s try to match or exceed that with 3 more plays for Friday’s slate.
Today, I like a couple of favorites on the spread and an over, so let’s get into explaining the reasoning behind those picks.
Celtics -5 (-110)
The Hawks will be motivated knowing that if they lose, they would need to make history to continue their season. The Celtics have won and covered in 7 straight against Atlanta, though, and until I see the Hawks showing that they can play with Boston, I will continue to lay the points with the Celtics. The Hawks’ porous defense shouldn’t be able to contain a Celtics team that has shot 46.5% from beyond the arc in Atlanta this season.
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Over 228 in Celtics vs Hawks (-110)
Both games in the Boston vs Atlanta series have stayed under the total so far, and the biggest reason for that is that Atlanta hasn’t been able to score anywhere near its season average against a Celtics defense that is in the top 5 in the NBA. The Hawks have not been able to start fast and haven’t scored more than 25 points in the first quarter in either game. I think that will change in Atlanta. The total for the first quarter is set at 59 and that is a sign that both teams are expected to start fast and score a lot.
This handicap is purely based on game script. The Hawks will have the home-court advantage and desperation on their side. I expect Trae Young to start fast and keep the Hawks in the game. If the Hawks start slowly, my guess is that Boston will step on their throat and take advantage. That means the game won’t go over, the Hawks won’t cover and their season will be over. In the teams’ last game in Atlanta during the regular season on March 11, they combined for 259 points. Oddsmakers have brought this total down enough for me to look in the other direction and go over 228.
Check out today’s NBA first-scorer best bets
Knicks -1.5 (-110)
The Knicks and Cavaliers are tied at a game apiece as their series moves to Madison Square Garden. New York won and covered both meetings in the Big Apple during the regular season, as underdogs both times. It’s a short number and the Knicks are slightly favored. I’ve said that all of these games will be close, and I expect Game 3 to be no different. The rebounding will once again tell the story. New York won the edge on the board in the teams’ previous 5 meetings.
The Knicks haven’t been a great spread team at home this season, going 19-20-2 against the number, but Cleveland is just 6-10 ATS as a road underdog this season. It should be a low-scoring and physical game. Maybe it’s just my heart as a Knicks fan telling me that they can win and cover a short number, but the fact that it’s the first time in the last 7 meetings this season that New York is a favorite is significant and I’ll lay the points with the home team.
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