Heading into a big day of NBA playoff action, I have compiled a 24-18 record on my picks for this column. Tonight I like an underdog to cover the spread in addition to a couple of under plays. Without further ado, I’ll get into the reasoning behind those picks.
Denver Nuggets +4 over Phoenix Suns (-110)
Denver’s defense continues to be undervalued. The Suns had very little depth with a healthy Paul. There are no other options for them other than Durant, Booker and Ayton. I’m taking the points with Denver since Paul is out. Unless you get a titanic performance from Durant, I give the Suns very little chance. Denver is still shooting near 48% from the field in the playoffs. I don’t think the Suns have enough to stop them without a bad shooting night.
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Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Under 225 (-110)
The combination of both teams staying under 100 in Game 2 and the Paul injury are enough for oddsmakers to bring this total down to 225. It’s not low enough. Denver’s defense is undervalued, but it is worse on the road this season — allowing 115 points per game, as opposed to averaging 111 point per game allowed over the whole season. Still, the Nuggets will have the advantage on the glass and be able to control the tempo. The Suns were averaging 9 3-pointers per game in the playoffs coming into the series and they only made 13 combined over the first 2 games.
The biggest problem for the Suns will be Paul’s absence. Phoenix has scored 194 points in 2 games in this series. Only 28 of them have come from the bench. That’s 14.4%. I don’t think Phoenix has enough scoring to push this total over. Unless Denver gets to 120 or more on its own, this total stays under 225.
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Boston Celtics vs Philadelphia 76ers Under 214.5 (-110)
The Boston Celtics earned a split with the Philadelphia 76ers after dropping the opener. The Celtics are averaging 52% shooting in this series. However, during the regular season they averaged only 46% shooting both games in Philadelphia. Boston is also averaging 61.5 points in the first half this series. In the 2 games in Philly, the Celtics averaged 48 points per half. Scoring won’t be as easy for the C’s.
The 76ers will surely have a better showing offensively than they did in Game 2, but still this is a team that in the last 6 meetings has only been able to score more than 105 when they shoot at least 50% from the field — which happened 3 times and only once at home. I don’t think Boston will allow the Sixers to reach that plateau. Unless they get another big effort from Joel Embiid or James Harden, I expect this game to be tight and defensive the whole way. Four of the last 5 have stayed under, with Game 1 being the lone over. This one stays under the total of 214.5.
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