I went 3-0 with my 3 best bets for last Friday’s NBA Playoff games, so let’s try to match that success with 3 more plays for Wednesday’s slate.
Today, I like a couple of totals and one favorite against the spread, so let’s get into explaining the reasoning behind those picks.
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Over 219.5 (-110)
It’s Game 5 between the Bucks and the Heat in Milwaukee and the Bucks are facing elimination. I haven’t exactly been spot-on in handicapping this series. Mostly because I have no explanation for what the Miami Heat are doing offensively. They are averaging more points than any team these playoffs and are shooting 54% from the field and nearly 48% from three. If you want to go look at their regular season numbers, you’ll see the vast difference.
I’ve looked to the under several times in this series. I’ve decided it’s time to change my ways. Despite the overabundance of scoring and the four games averaging 240 points per game, oddsmakers have been reluctant to come above 220 as a posted total. Well, I’m not fighting it anymore. Simply put, it’s my belief that one of these two teams will score 120 points. The other only needs to get to 100 to push this total over. If there’s a breakout defensive performance, it would be the first one in this series. And with Giannis Antetokounmpo back in the lineup, there will be enough scoring for me.
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New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers Over 202.5 (-110)
The Knicks have a stranglehold on the Cavaliers as the teams are back in Cleveland for Game 5. And it’s the New York defense that has been on full display holding Cleveland to 94 points per game, just 44.5% shooting from the field and a paltry 30% from beyond the arc. If the Cavaliers have any hope of staying alive, that has got to change. The one game in this series that they won — Game 2 at home — they shot 49% from the field and 42% from deep. It’s also been the only game they’ve won the rebounding advantage.
I’m not 100% comfortable laying the points with the Cavs, as every game in this series has been pretty tight for at least 3 quarters. I don’t expect a blowout on either side. But the total has dropped in every game of this series and this feels like an overcorrection by oddsmakers to bring the total down to 202.5. For reference, the closing total in Game 1 was 216. Cleveland will be packing their bags if they don’t get to 100 points in this game. Even though, it’s not wise to fade the Cavs elite defense, New York should be giving maximum effort with a chance to close out the series. I’ll take the over in this one.
Memphis Grizzlies -4 over Los Angeles Lakers (-110)
The Grizzlies are back on their home floor trying to stave off elimination in Game 5 as they host the Lakers. Dillon Brooks vs LeBron James drama aside, the Grizzlies are the better team, and they need to play like it. Memphis won the 4 of the previous 5 meetings at home against Los Angeles. The loss in Game 1 was a one-point game with 3:11 left in the 4th quarter and Memphis didn’t score a single point the rest of the way. That anomaly aside, the Grizzlies have won the games in Memphis by an average of 9.7 points per game.
The Grizzlies have the 4th best scoring defense at home this season giving up just 109.2 points per game. In Game 2, they limited Los Angeles to just 41% shooting and under 27% from beyond the arc and they did that without Ja Morant in the lineup. Morant isn’t on the injury report and for a team that 36-7 straight up at home this year, I’ll trust them to get it done and extend the series. This is a short enough number for the Grizzlies to cover as well.
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