The Oklahoma City Thunder followed up their championship last season by picking up the best record in the NBA. However, they find themselves in a Western Conference that seems stronger than ever, with all of the 3 major MVP candidates all playing here. The 2024 Champions the Boston Celtics seem to be back at their best too which should help make these playoffs very intriguing. Let’s break down the contenders.
Oklahoma City Thunder (+100)
The defending champions finished the season as the top team in defensive rating this season and are the clear favorites to repeat. But all might not be as straight forward as it appears. Injuries have plagued them this season, with key players like Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Williams playing under 50 games. The latter also took a step back in all major statistical categories apart from assists compared to last season. If his struggles continue into the postseason, it could leave them without a clear second option behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Their paths could also cross the San Antonio Spurs, who beat them in 3 of 4 games this season.
San Antonio Spurs (+500)
The Spurs might still be a young team, but Victor Wembanyama has propelled them to challenger status. They should have a fairly easy time in the first round against either the Phoenix Suns or Portland Trail Blazers, which could leave them better rested than the Denver Nuggets, who might have to slog it out against the Minnesota Timberwolves. If they are to make a deep run here, they will need someone outside of Wembanyama to be able to create their own shots. De’Aaron Fox could be that player, but he finished the season averaging under 19 points per game, his lowest mark since his sophomore season. They will need him to step up here.
Boston Celtics (+500)
Not only has Jayson Tatum made a surprise early return this season, he has looked great in the games he has appeared in. The star has put together averages of 21 points and 10 rebounds per game in 16 contests, enough to shake off the rust. With Jaylen Brown putting together a MVP worthy season and the likes of Neemias Quata thriving in their roles, the Celtics look like the most stacked team in the Eastern Conference. Their path to the Finals could be the hardest of any team top 4 team in the conference however, with potential matchups against the dangerous Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons.
Denver Nuggets (+900)
The Nuggets were able to push the Thunder to a Game 7 last season and have comeback retooled, with the additions of players like Cam Johnson. They have led the league in offensive rating but have been down in 21st in defensive rating. With the game slowing down in the playoffs, expect improvement from them on that front here. They also won the season series against both the Timberwolves and the Spurs. Nikola Jokic has put together another historic campaign too and will be tough for any team to figure out over a 7-game series. The Nuggets enter the postseason riding a league leading 12-game winning streak and look to be approaching top form already.
Detroit Pistons (+1600)
The Pistons finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference, despite Cade Cunningham missing 18 games. They were 2nd this season in net offensive and defensive rating behind the Thunder so certainly cannot be overlooked. They were also 4th in fast break points per game and led the league in paint points. With games slowing down and defensive efforts improving in the postseason, those points could be harder to come by for them. They will also need to find a player outside of Cade Cunningham that can create his own shots. I would not put my trust in someone like Tobias Harris to be able to step up on that front.
NBA Championship Best bet: Denver Nuggets
Right at the end of the playoffs last season, I picked the Nuggets to win it this year, and I am sticking with that selection. Nikola Jokic is at the peak of his prime, becoming the first player ever to lead the league in both rebounds and assists per game. Jamal Murray had the best scoring year of his career, and the supporting pieces all play to the Serbians strengths. I can not see a team out there who will be able to outscore them in 4 out of 7 games.
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