Filip Tomic
June is here and the 2025 NBA Finals matchup is set. At the start of the postseason, almost everyone had the Oklahoma City Thunder representing the West in the NBA Finals, but almost no-one will have had the Indiana Pacers down as the team to come through the East. Neither fanbase has ever won an NBA championship and although both are smaller market teams, there will be no shortage of excitement once this series tips off on Thursday, June 6. With that in mind, let’s break down the NBA odds for the 2025 NBA Finals, while you can also find out our experts’ NBA picks for EVERY game, with our handicapper Germantas Kneita boasting an 87-64 record this season for +45.4 units!
2025 NBA Finals odds
Odds courtesy of bet365 and available at time of publishing.
NBA Finals Winner odds
- Oklahoma City Thunder -750
- Indiana Pacers +530
NBA Finals MVP Odds
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -550
- Tyrese Haliburton +700
- Pascal Siakam +1900
- Jalen Williams +3300
- Chet Holmgren +7500
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How did the Pacers reach the 2025 NBA Finals?
One could argue that the Indiana Pacers had a relatively easier path through the Eastern Conference than their counterpart in the West. The first round saw them take care of the Milwaukee Bucks, who lost Damian Lillard to an Achilles injury midway through the series. In 2nd round, they took down the #1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers, who posted a 64-18 record during the regular season, but they too had injury issues with Darius Garland missing a few games. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Indiana ousted the Knicks 4-2, which they found a lot easier than people anticipated as they won 2 games at MSG.
How did the Thunder reach the 2025 NBA Finals?
The Thunder’s biggest challenge came in the 2nd round of their run to the 2025 NBA Finals. After sweeping the Grizzlies by an average margin of 14.8 points per win, the Thunder were forced to play all 7 games against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. However, the youthful OKC showcased their readiness for the big stage and high-pressure situations, crushing Denver 125-93 in Game 7. The Timberwolves didn’t pose that big of a threat to the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company ran through Minnesota in 5 games.
NBA Finals series prediction and best bet: Thunder to win 4-1 (+220)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
These 2 teams are very similar if we only look at the raw numbers. In terms of depth, endurance and style of play, the Pacers match up well with OKC, but in my eyes, the Thunder are just more elite in all of those categories.
Getting to the NBA Finals for the first time in 25 years is an accomplishment in itself for the Pacers, but the manner in which they did it leaves room for doubt. Indy’s run was marked with more than a few improbable comebacks, and while those comebacks were a lot of fun to watch, it’s something that you cannot rely on to win at the highest level. History tells us that these types of teams usually get exposed deeper in the postseason.
Having the regular-season MVP on their roster gives the Thunder an important edge here. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s form has translated well to the postseason – he’s averaging 29.8 points per game on 47.1% shooting and 30% from three in 16 games so far. In the 2 meetings with Indiana during the regular season, SGA toyed with them as he put up 39 points, 7 rebounds and 8 assists per game, while shooting 55% from the field, 63% from three and 91% from the charity stripe.
OKC won both meetings in the regular season by an average of 13.2 points, posting a superior offensive rating (125.8 to 112.6) — and they did all that without having Chet Holmgren in the lineup. Coming into this series, the Thunder are fully healthy and convincingly the more star-studded team. Tyrese Haliburton is Indiana’s only hope of making this a series, but I’m curious to see if he can deliver against the best defensive team in the NBA. Overall, the Thunder are the more complete team. They went 29-1 against the East during the regular season. All of the positive things that were said about them during their dominant regular-season run have remained true in the postseason. Expect OKC to cruise to NBA Championship success in 5 games.
Keep an eye out for our NBA best bets throughout the NBA Finals — our experts are on a 12-3 run!
