Germantas Kneita
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The Miami Heat return home for Game 3 knowing that if they win their remaining games in Miami, they would advance to the next round of the playoffs. That is going to be no easy task, especially without Tyler Herro. It does not help that they will be up against the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, who are likely to see the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo on Saturday.
Take a look at all of our NBA Playoff predictions. But for now we’ll jump right into my Bucks vs Heat SGP.
Over 220.5 (-108)
Gabe Vincent over 2.5 made threes (+110)
Bam Adebayo over 3.5 assists (-106)
Grayson Allen over 2.5 made threes (+140)
Parlay odds:+1388
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Over 220.5 (-108)
So far, we have seen 2 very high scoring games between the teams. In Game 1 they combined for 247 points while in Game 2 it was 260. It is hard to imagine a drastic drop off to below 220 here. The Bucks have been 6th in the league in pace and have been successful at setting the tempo for the series so far. With far superior guard play, look for the same to be the case here.
Both teams have been terrible defensively too, ranking 15th and 16th among playoff teams in defensive rating. With the Bucks potentially getting back their leading scorer, the Heat will have issues improving on that. The hosts finished the regular season 28th in opponent 3-pointers made. A strong perimeter showing from the visitors will help rack up the points. Back the over.
Gabe Vincent over 2.5 made threes (+110)
Gabe Vincent had some success in Game 2 of the series in filling Tyler Herro’s role. He was able to boost the Heat’s perimeter attack by knocking down 4 of his 9 3-point attempts. It marked the second straight game for Vincent with 4 makes from beyond the arc. It was also his 4th game from 6 overall against the Bucks this season in which he was able to reach this mark. With the series shifting back to Miami, he should be well positioned to keep it up. Playing at home, his 3-point percentage went up to 34.8% as opposed to 33.4% on the regular season. That uptick should help him maintain his recent form.
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Bam Adebayo over 3.5 assists (-106)
In Game 1 of the series Bam Adebayo recorded 7 assists. With Antetokounmpo potentially returning and coming in as a help defender, look for Adebayo to give the ball up more often tonight too. The Heat center is a capable passer of the ball, averaging 3.2 assists per game this season. That ranked him 9th among centers in the NBA. With Kyle Lowry not earning more than 20 minutes of game time in either game, look for Bam Adebayo to help Jimmy Butler carry the playmaking burden. Considering some of the Bucks defensive struggles this postseason so far, the Heat should enjoy a successful scoring night. Adebayo should facilitate a part of this.
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Grayson Allen over 2.5 made threes (+140)
One man that should benefit from the return of Antetokounmpo is Grayson Allen. With the ability of the former MVP to attack the rim and force defenses to collapse, Allen should get open looks on the perimeter. Considering that he is making 39.9% of his 3-point attempts this season, he should be able to convert them here. In Game 2 of the series he managed to knock down 4 shots from deep and it is hard to see that dropping off tonight. He has also faced the Heat 5 times this season, hitting at least 3 triples on 4 occasions. This should be a good value addition as a result.
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