Ricky Dimon
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The Elite Eight is set and by the time Sunday night ends, the field will down to 4. Half of the Final Four will be determined on Saturday when the first 2 regional title games are held. It all gets started with Florida Atlantic squaring off against Kansas State inside Madison Square Garden before the nightcap features UConn and Gonzaga tipping off in Las Vegas.
Let’s take a look at my 2 plays for Saturday.
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Florida Atlantic Owls +2 over Kansas State Wildcats (-110)
It is a surprising Elite Eight lineup from top to bottom other than #2 seed Texas, but with Princeton having been ousted by Creighton on Friday night, the last remaining Cinderella distinction belongs to Florida Atlantic. Well, “Cinderella” I suppose is debatable. After all, this team is 34-3. Still, it is a #9 seed and surely no one outside of Boca Raton, Fla. had head coach Dusty May’s squad in the Elite Eight. What isn’t debatable is that the Owls are the lowest-seeded team left. I think they can hold that distinction through to the Final Four, too. They have a significant edge on the offensive glass and in transition for Saturday’s matchup against Kansas State.
FAU should be to take advantage of a KSU defense that ranks in just the 21st percentile nationally in transition defense (per Synergy). Even if the Owls don’t connect on their first shot in a possession, second-chance opportunities should be available. The Wildcats just allowed Michigan State to grab 13 offensive rebounds on Thursday. That thriller went into overtime, which won’t help Kansas State’s recovery for this quick turnaround on Saturday evening. I’ll take FAU plus the points but wouldn’t be surprised by an outright win.
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UConn Huskies vs Gonzaga Bulldogs Over 153.5 (-110)
I liked the over in Gonzaga vs UCLA on Thursday (145.5). It was a bit of a sweat, but the Zags and Bruins eventually blew past that number. I think Gonzaga will have another high-scoring affair on its hands with UConn, to the extent that even a 153.5 quota seems too low. Both the Bulldogs and the Huskies both are graded as top 3 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency by KenPom, BartTorvik and Haslametrics. The former has scored at least 70 points in each of its last 7 games against opponents that rank in the top 20 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric (which the Huskies do).
That includes a 100-point effort against Alabama. The latter (UConn) ranks 235th in effective field-goal percentage allowed. At the other end of the floor, the Huskies have averaged 83.6 points per game against Division 1 defenses that rank outside the top 150 in effective field-goal percentage allowed. The Zags want this to be another game played at a fast pace and the Huskies should be more than willing to oblige.
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