New England Patriots 2019 Betting Predictions, Odds and Expert Best Bets

Photo of the pickswise logo
Photo of Ricky Dimon

Ricky Dimon

NFL

Show Bio

Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

Best Bet – To Win the AFC Championship (+400)

Worst Bet – To Make the Playoffs (-800)

The New England Patriots winning the Super Bowl may not be the third certainty of life behind death and taxes, but it’s close. Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and company have lifted the Lombardi Trophy six times dating back to the start of their dynasty in 2001. When will the dynasty end? Future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski has retired, but that doesn’t mean the end is near. With Brady and Belichick back, does it really matter who else is around? Well, to some extent yes, but the supporting cast is still strong even without Gronkowski. It includes wide receiver Julian Edelman, running back Sony Michel, and safeties Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty just to name a few. Even offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has returned yet again, having continually spurned head-coaching offers following his one failed gig in Denver.

Keeping up with and even surpassing fellow “old” champions Roger Federer (37) on the tennis court and Tiger Woods (42) on the golf course, Brady (41) is arguably the greatest quarterback of all time and without question still one of the best in the business. He won his third NFL MVP Award as recently as 2017. Although Brady was not in the MVP discussion last season, he still tossed 29 touchdown passes compared to only 11 interceptions. Remaining incredibly durable in the seemingly latter stages of his career, the University of Michigan product has played in all 16 games in nine of the last 10 seasons. The only exception was a 12-game effort in 2016, and even that was due to suspension as opposed to injury.

Thanks in part to Brady, Gronkowski, Edelman, and the emergence of Michel, the Patriots finished fifth in the NFL in total offense (fifth in rushing, eighth in passing) last year. Their defense was mediocre at best (21st overall, 11th against the run, 22nd against the pass) but rose to the occasion when it mattered most by holding the Rams to just three points in Super Bowl LIII.

Patriots Win Total: O/U 11

This year’s number of 11 was exactly where New England found itself last season. It is an unspectacular total for a Super Bowl champion, to be sure, but the Patriots obviously should have been 12-4 rather than 11-5 (everyone, of course, remembers the last-play loss on the Miami Miracle). They started off slow as well, losing two of their first three games at the hands of Jacksonville and Detroit. But a midseason hot streak that featured wins over Indianapolis, Kansas City, Chicago, and Green Bay (six in total) showcased the real Patriots. The Pats on display then were the Pats on display in the playoffs. In the words of former Cardinals head coach Dennis Green, they were who we thought they were.

And the AFC East will likely let them off the hook once again. Having the benefit of playing Buffalo, Miami, and the Jets twice every season is (except when miracles occur) an incredible luxury. Barring some unforeseen disaster, at worst this will be a push. As such, roll with the over.

Odds to Make the Playoffs: Yes -800, No +500

Brady getting hurt—and getting hurt early—is the only scenario in which anyone could see the Patriots missing the playoffs. The GOAT getting hurt has not happened since 2008 and the Pats missing the playoffs has not happened since…you guessed it…2008. Even without Gronkowski, this offense is too good to take a considerable step back. Edelman has at least one more productive season left at 33 years old and Michel will only improve in his second NFL season.

That being said, no part of this bet is enticing. At -800, betting New England to make the playoffs is not good enough value. Meanwhile, +500 is nowhere near enough of a payday to go out on a limb and pick the Patriots to miss out. Avoid this like the plague, but clearly the Pats are going to make the playoffs so go in that direction if you must.

Odds to Win the AFC East: -400

As referenced earlier, this division stinks. Everyone other than New England stinks, that is. Okay, the AFC East may not be the worst of the worst in the entire league; the bottom line, though, is that no one can compete with the Pats. The Jets are still at least a year away and both Buffalo and Miami have been stuck in mediocrity for the last decade. It’s not a terrible bet but it’s also not the best, because—let’s be honest—if the Patriots make the playoffs, they’re probably going the Super Bowl. So why not bet bigger?

Odds to Win the AFC Championship: +400

A much better bet is on the AFC Championship. This esteemed franchise has played in nine Super Bowls under Belichick, including five without Gronkowski. It can get there again, especially if the road to it goes through Foxborough. The road often goes through Foxborough, too; it didn’t last season…and it didn’t matter. New England went to Kansas City and took down the top-seeded Chiefs in the AFC Championship. You just can’t bet against Brady in the postseason. At +400, there is intriguing value on the Patriots to play in yet another Super Bowl.

Odds to Win the Super Bowl: +600

Most teams generally have twice the odds of winning a title as they do of winning their conference. For example, they are often +400 to win a conference and +800 to win a title, +500 to win a conference and +1000 to win a title, etc. That isn’t the case for the Patriots simply because they are so good in the Super Bowl. Once they get there, they win it (unless an NFC East opponent is roaming the other sideline). This is not an awful bet because New England has a great chance of repeating, but sticking with AFC glory is a safer, smarter play.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

BetRivers

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Win $200 if Any NBA Team Hits a Three Pointer!

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NBA game

Win $200 in free bets if any team hits a three pointer

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5 & Win $150 If Your First Moneyline Bet Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game Moneyline in any sport

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 if Any NHL Team Scores A Goal

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NHL game

Win $200 in free bets if any teams scores a goal

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy

$100

First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply