Caleb Wilfinger
After a long and eventful offseason, the NFL season is nearly here. Week 1 will kick off on September 4 with Thursday Night Football between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. Here at Pickswise, we are building up to the new season and you can check out our NFL futures guide, which has our Super Bowl winner picks, MVP best bets, player award predictions and much more.
For now, our handicapping team is breaking down every division with in-depth team analysis and best bets. Let’s dive into the AFC West, which will generate plenty of headlines all season long as the home of the Kansas City Chiefs, who are looking to make it back to the Super Bowl for the fourth consecutive season. Here are the NFL odds and our expert NFL picks for this fascinating division.
AFC West Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and available at time of publishing.
- Kansas City Chiefs -110
- Denver Broncos +290
- Los Angeles Chargers +320
- Las Vegas Raiders +1200
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Kansas City Chiefs (-110)
At this point, we all know what we’re getting with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. Since Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018, the Chiefs have won the AFC West in every single season, most of the time by a significant margin. With that in mind, the Chiefs certainly appear to be slightly underpriced in the market given the dominance Kansas City has shown over the AFC West in the Mahomes/Reid era.
Kansas City’s schedule isn’t easy in the first half, particularly when we focus on games against the Eagles and Bills on the schedule. However, things soften up in the second half of the season, and that’s also when wide receiver Rashee Rice should be back in the fold, joining the likes of Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce. Defensively, the Chiefs are bringing back Chris Jones for another year, and we can blindly trust Steve Spagnuolo to have his unit firing on all cylinders in key moments, regardless of opponent. Don’t expect the challengers in this division to suddenly buck this trend of Chiefs dominance, especially considering that both the Broncos and Chargers are prime regression candidates this season. It’s a square play, but I have to take the Chiefs to win the AFC West once again.
Kansas City Chiefs best bet: Chiefs to win the AFC West (-110)
Denver Broncos (+290)
Heading into the 2024 campaign, I was pretty optimistic about the floor of the Broncos with Sean Payton at the helm and a favorable schedule that made Denver a fringe playoff team on paper. Well, not only did the Broncos overachieve those expectations and make the playoffs last year, they also enter this season with a considerable amount of hype after a few notable additions on defense in the offseason.
With that said, the schedule is considerably tougher this year compared to a season ago, including games against the Eagles, Texans, Packers, Bengals, Commanders and Jaguars, to say nothing of the 6 games against opponents within their division. Furthermore, there’s also the fact that Bo Nix and the Broncos offense didn’t exactly impress when they stepped up in class last fall. I’m sensing that regression is coming for Denver, particularly once the second half of the season comes around.
Denver Broncos best bet: Broncos under 9.5 wins (-110)
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Los Angeles Chargers (+320)
The Chargers were another team in the AFC West that exceeded expectations a bit last season, and while I was ready to be cautiously optimistic on Justin Herbert and the Bolts in 2025, I can’t get there with Los Angeles to win 10 games in a very competitive AFC. I already had concerns about this offense, and the recent news that star offensive lineman Rashawn Slater is out for the season with a torn patellar tendon certainly doesn’t ease those concerns. There’s also the matter of a banged-up Najee Harris at running back, along with a recent injury scare for Ladd McConkey, who was one of the breakout stars of last season’s rookie class. Couple that with a difficult schedule and a defense that struggled against playoff-caliber quarterbacks a season ago, and you have a team that has all the signs of a regression candidate this fall.
Los Angeles Chargers best bet: Chargers under 9.5 wins (-110)
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Las Vegas Raiders (+1200)
Bringing up the rear in the AFC West is the Las Vegas Raiders, who are coming off a very disappointing season in 2024. However, this team has new leadership and should be on an upward trajectory in 2025, thanks to the insertion of Pete Carroll as the head coach and Geno Smith at quarterback. These are moves that clearly raise the floor of a team that already has some high-end talent on both sides of the ball (Brock Bowers and Max Crosby, for example), and Las Vegas is also adding rookie phenom Ashton Jeanty into the fold at running back, who is coming off one of the best seasons in history at the collegiate level a season ago. The Raiders will either be short underdogs or favorites in 5 of their first 8 games, and that doesn’t even include games against Cleveland or the Giants later this season. Let’s back Las Vegas to bounce back this fall.
Las Vegas Raiders best bet: Raiders over 6.5 wins (-140)
Grab our expert’s NFC East predictions
AFC West division predictions
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Denver Broncos
- Las Vegas Raiders
AFC West Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs to win AFC West (-110)
On first glance, I wanted to fade the Chiefs given how last season ended and their ridiculous record in one score games a year ago. However, when factoring in the state of the contenders in this division and how soft Kansas City’s schedule is down the stretch, I can only look at backing Mahomes and Reid at this pretty friendly price-point in the market. It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if this number exceeded -300 by the time we hit the halfway point of the season, so let’s take the Chiefs to win the AFC West yet again.
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