Ricky Dimon
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Week 16 of the NFL season continues on Saturday with 2 games, 1 of which pits the Cincinnati Bengals against the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North showdown. Both teams are still in playoff contention, but Pittsburgh is on life support with a 7-7 record because of a disastrous 3-game losing streak. Cincinnati is 8-6 and has won 3 in a row behind backup quarterback Jake Browning.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 4:30 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Bengals vs Steelers predictions.
Bengals -6.5 alternate spread (+168)
Joe Mixon to score a touchdown (-105)
Diontae Johnson to record 60+ receiving yards (+180)
Parlay odds: +970
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a big win by the Bengals. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Steelers receiver Diontae Johnson to rack up his fair share of receiving yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the Bengals can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Bengals -6.5 alternate spread (+168)
It will be a showdown between backup quarterbacks, which is nothing new in the NFL this season. Unfortunately for the Steelers, not all things are equal when it comes to playing with those backup QBs. Mason Rudolph basically hasn’t taken the field at all this season, so Pittsburgh’s woes are no fault of his own. The sample size of his whole career is limited, with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions to go along with a 61.5 percent completion percentage. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s Jake Browning has been mightily impressive since taking over for Joe Burrow – a big reason why the Bengals have won 3 straight. It’s not like Cincy is some kind of Super Bowl contender, but given how bad Pittsburgh has looked this month it stands to reason that the visitors have a good chance to win this one by at least a touchdown.
Joe Mixon to score a touchdown (-105)
Getting Mixon at basically even money to score a touchdown is a steal. The Oklahoma product has scored at least 1 TD in 7 of the last 8 games, including 8 in total during this stretch (he found the endzone twice against Jacksonville during a 34-31 overtime victory in Week 13). He probably won’t slow down against the Steelers, who rank a modest #22 in the NFL against the run. Pittsburgh has allowed 24, 21 and 30 points over the past 3 contests (again, all losses), so its once stout defense is reeling a little bit at the moment. Count on Mixon taking advantage, especially since he is the undisputed star of Cincinnati’s offense now that Burrow is sidelined.
Diontae Johnson to record 60+ receiving yards (+180)
Although Rudolph’s body of work in the NFL is extremely limited, Johnson already has some success when it comes to this particular quarterback-receiver connection. In Rudolph’s lone 2020 start, Johnson went for 96 yards against Cleveland. The following season Rudolph made a start against Detroit and Johnson hauled in 7 passes for 83 yards during a rare tie (16-16 following a scoreless overtime frame). It’s also worth noting that Johnson has led the Steelers in receiving in each of the last 2 contests and he delivered at least 79 yards in 3 consecutive weeks earlier this year. Now he faces a Cincinnati defense that is #27 in the league against the pass and is tied for dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed at 8.0. All of this sets up well for Johnson to produce some relatively big numbers on Saturday.
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