Andrew Wilsher
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The NFL playoffs got started with a crazy Super Wild Card Weekend that saw the Cowboys suffer a shock exit, and now we see the Ravens and 49ers enter the fold with the Divisional Round. We have 4 more great games to get excited for across Saturday and Sunday. Will we see another major upset?
If so, there’s a good chance the Pickswise NFL handicappers will find it! Our team of experts have a 59-42 record with their NFL best bets this season, which is good for +29.01 units of profit! We’ve also been red-hot with our NFL picks on the side and total for every game throughout the year. Let’s keep that momentum going and dive into our NFL Divisional Round best bets.
John Martin: Baltimore Ravens -9.5 over Houston Texans (-110)
If at first you don’t succeed: Try, try again. That’s what we’re doing with the Baltimore Ravens against the Houston Texans. We had the Browns -2.5 last week, and that wound up being disastrous thanks to Joe Flacco completely running out of gas. Luckily for the Ravens, this is the Lamar Jackson era, and it’s going to be an entirely different beast of a test for the Texans this week. It’s probably not possible to look better than CJ Stroud looked last week against the #1 defense in the NFL. He finished 16/21 for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns and became the first rookie quarterback to beat the No. 1-ranked defense in the postseason. It was as incisive a performance as you’ll see in this league.
Ravens defensive coordinator Mike McDonald is quite familiar with Stroud, as he schemed against him when he was at Michigan and Stroud at Ohio State, as well as Week 1 of this season in which the Ravens rolled by 16. Now you’re asking Stroud to go from a friendlier environment against a defense that, while elite, admittedly didn’t travel well, to a road game against a staff that is well-versed in what Stroud is going to do. On the defensive side, though the Texans are as healthy as they’ve been it’s a complete flip from what you have to gameplan for. Going from 38-year-old Flacco to the MVP-elect of the league (who gets back his favorite target) is a jarring dynamic, and it’s one that the Texans likely struggle with. Stroud and the Texans have been a great story, but I’m expecting it to come to an end on Saturday.
Be sure to check out our full Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens predictions
Chris Farley: Green Bay Packers +9.5 over San Francisco 49ers (-108)
The Packers are looking as dangerous as they have all season. First-year starter Jordan Love has cemented his place as Green Bay’s new leader, yet another franchise QB for the Wisconsin faithful, and boy did he make a statement last week at Dallas. Love and the Packers throttled their opponent right from the opening kickoff, giving the Cowboys their first loss in their last 17 home games. It reminded me of Love’s fantastic performance in Detroit on Thanksgiving, another contest in which head coach Matt LaFleur and his new QB executed a perfect game-plan on the road against a very good team. LaFleur also continues to prove he is nobody’s underdog. He leads all active coaches with a 70% ATS mark as an underdog (19-8 all time). The question is: should the Packers be given this many points again, just one week later, against unquestionably the NFC’s best team?
Of course, the well-rested 49ers — at home — are nothing to bat an eye at. San Francisco deserves home-field advantage and the #1 seed. After all, the Niners own one of the best point-differentials in the NFL (SF scores 29 ppg and only allows 17.5 ppg; oddsmakers could make a case that it should be an even bigger favorite). On the other hand, most of their starters had 3 weeks off from competitive football and we all know that can affect even the best operations. On top of that, I imagine LaFleur and Love will have a similar game-plan this Saturday: attack first, rattle the opponent and make them play catchup against a burgeoning and aggressive defense.
San Fran head coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the premiere coaches in the league, so I’m sure he will have his guys ready. At the same time, I can’t ignore the momentum and increasing confidence of Love and his offense. If the Packers manage to strike first, and they’re very good at doing that (Green Bay has scored the first touchdown in nine straight games), the 49ers could be in trouble early. And even if they don’t strike first, I’m not convinced that LaFleur’s squad can’t keep up. This is a battle of 2 bright, stud coaches who have a lot of pride in their offensive creativity. They also have similar, interwoven stories that led them to their current positions — so there’s an element of added competition between the 2 lead men. Even if San Fran somehow leads by double-digits heading into the fourth quarter, how confident am I that they can hold back Love in the clutch? I’m not. This game projects to be closer than expected.
Be sure to check out our full Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers predictions
The Betting Queen: Buffalo Bills ML over Kansas City Chiefs (-143)
We have a Week 14 rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Bills were able to edge out a 20-17 win in Arrowhead earlier this year and they will be looking to do it again but this time on their home field. Both of these teams cruised through the first round of the playoffs last week, with the Chiefs cruising past the Dolphins in freezing temperatures, while the Bills looked unstoppable against the Steelers with their defense in particular really showing out. Each secured a double-digit victory, so who will come out on top on Sunday night?
The Chiefs’ offense took a few steps back this season and their defense has been carrying them all year. They have only allowed an average of 17 points per game to opposing offenses and has been the real driving force behind them reaching this stage. Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes but he can only do so much with his receivers dropping passes every game, including Travis Kelce.
The Bills on the other hand have won 7 of their last 8 games and have effectively been playing playoff football for over a month now, since they’ve constantly needed to win to even get to this position. However, that has truly inspired Sean McDermott’s team and they’ve really been firing on all cylinders. Their offense is looking lethal behind Josh Allen’s dual-threat passing and run game, and they are averaging over 26 points per game. I expect Josh Allen to find ways of exposing the Chiefs’ defense and wouldn’t be surprised to see them run up the scoreboard. I am counting on the Bills offense to show up again in a huge way and send the Chiefs home early this season, especially after the Chiefs sent them packing in the divisional round 2 years ago. I’m rolling with the Bills to secure the victory in this one.
Be sure to check out our full Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills predictions
