Ricky Dimon
We are less than a month away from the 2025 NFL regular season. Week 1 can’t come soon enough, but before it does we have time to preview all of the upcoming action and make our predictions and best bets.
Pickswise’s extensive coverage continues with a breakdown of the NFC South. As usual, it expected to be one of the most wide-open divisions in football. Yes, that is a nice way of saying it’s not very good. At the same time, it might not be terrible. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers always seem to boast a decent roster, the Atlanta Falcons have plenty of potential and the Carolina Panthers may be on the rise. As for the New Orleans Saints, well…nothing good can be said.
NFC South odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -110
Atlanta Falcons +230
Carolina Panthers +425
New Orleans Saints +1400
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have not won the division since 2016 and have not made the playoffs since 2017. Going into last season, there were expectations that this team could at least compile its first winning record in seven years. That didn’t happen. Expectations are the same heading into the 2025 campaign; this time I think it happens. Michael Penix Jr.’s sample size under center is not large, but the end of last year offered enough reasons to be encouraged. Penix certainly has no excuse being surrounded by guys like Bijan Robinson and Drake London. As for the defense, a pair of first-round picks in Jalon Walker and James Pierce Jr. should provide an instant impact. An upgrade at coordinator from Jimmy Lake to Jeff Ulbrich could also do wonders.
Atlanta Falcons best bet: Over 7.5 wins (-140) and Over 8.5 wins (+125)
Carolina Panthers
Remember when Carolina’s decision to draft Bryce Young #1 overall in 2023 ahead of C.J. Stroud was thought to be one of the most disastrous decisions in NFL history? Although it still could turn out to be the wrong choice, suddenly it’s not looking so bad. Young made significant strides in his second season, to the extent that he very well could be a franchise quarterback – and a good one. That’s not to say you should get carried away with expectations for the Panthers. No matter how well Young performs, this team is probably several years away from really making noise. Head coach Dave Canales still doesn’t have a great roster to work with in year 2, but he at least has this franchise going in a positive direction.
Carolina Panthers best bet: Over 2.5 division wins (-150)
New Orleans Saints
What a difference 11 months makes. In September of last year, the Saints were 2-0 and outscoring opponents 91-29. They promptly lost 7 consecutive contests and finished 5-12. The Derek Carr era is over, Dennis Allen obviously got fired and this franchise has hit the complete reset button. Alvin Kamara is still around along with Chris Olave on the offensive side of the ball, while Cameron Jordan continues to anchor the defense. Otherwise, this is a new squad. Heck, Tyler Shough may be the starting quarterback. What are we doing?!?! Even in an unspectacular division, I can’t see New Orleans finishing anywhere other than dead last – and probably with room to spare. In fact, this might be the worst team in the entire NFL.
New Orleans Saints best bet: To finish in last place in the division (-150)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have won not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4 division titles in a row. Of course, that has more to do with the other teams than on their own merit. Tampa Bay fully earned it in 2021 with a 13-4 record, but it has gone 8-9, 9-8 and 10-7 in the past three seasons. It’s not like this team is unbeatable. Baker Mayfield has become a very good quarterback, but I’m not about to put him in the elite category. Chris Godwin is coming off a dislocated ankle and heads into 2025 as a significant question mark, so Mayfield could be missing one of his favorite weapons for an indefinite amount of time. The defensive line is great, but the overall defense wasn’t a top-10 unit last year and I don’t think it will be in 2025.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers best bet: To not win the division (-110)
NFC South division predictions
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. Carolina Panthers
4. New Orleans Saints
NFC South best bet: Atlanta Falcons to win the division (+230)
There was absolutely no reason why Atlanta should not have won the NFC South in 2024. It swept Tampa Bay 2-0 in the head-to-head series basically had a 3-game lead (when you factor in the H2H tiebreaker) midway through the season. An epic collapse had a lot to do with Kirk Cousins. Well, he is now out (or still on the roster but as the backup) and Penix is in. That change alone inspires a lot of confidence and points to a positive, youthful trajectory for the Falcons. They are by no means world beaters, but they can win a division in which Tampa Bay is overrated, Carolina isn’t there yet and New Orleans stinks.
