Ricky Dimon
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Week 12 of the 2023 NFL campaign features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. Thanks to a 5-1 record in their last 6 games and the Chiefs’ recent loss to Philadelphia, the Ravens are right in the mix for the #1 seed in the AFC. The Chargers, on the other hand, are 4-6 and barely in contention for a wild-card spot.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Ravens vs Chargers predictions.
Ravens -9.5 (+240)
Lamar Jackson to throw for 250+ passing yards (+110)
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-104)
Parlay odds: +792
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson having a big game would obviously work well with domination by the Ravens. Let’s break down each of the legs.
Ravens -9.5 (+240)
The Ravens are one of those teams that when they are good they are flat-out amazing and when they are bad they can be pretty darn bad. If Baltimore plays well on Sunday (and there is no reason why it won’t), there is really no ceiling on the amount of points by which it could win. The Ravens’ last 2 victories have come by an average of 24 points and they hammered Detroit 38-6 last month. I’m more than happy to back the visitors to win by double digits. Whenever the Chargers are involved, you know there is the very real potential for a shootout. I expect Baltimore to do the majority of the scoring in said shootout.
Head coach Brandon Staley came under fire following the Chargers’ loss to Green Bay last weekend and he was not too happy about his defensive play-calling being called into question. The Bolts’ defense was already bad, and now Joey Bosa (foot) is sidelined for at least 4 weeks. With just 3 losses, the Ravens are tied with the Dolphins for the best record in the AFC. They are simply the far superior team compared to the Chargers and I expect them to prove it again this weekend.
Lamar Jackson to throw for 250+ passing yards (+110)
Los Angeles is saddled with the worst passing defense in the NFL, giving up 291.6 yards per game. Staley’s squad is also dead last in yards per pass attempt allowed at a horrendous 8.1. Even without tight end Mark Andrews (ankle) at his disposal, Jackson should be in line for a field day on Sunday night.
Jackson has passed for at least 223 yards in 6 of the last 8 contests, so asking him to reach 250 – especially at the expense of an opponent like L.A. — really isn’t too much. The former NFL MVP went for 264 against Cincinnati last Thursday. With Bosa not around to pressure Jackson, I’m anticipating heaps of passing yards.
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-104)
In turn, Jackson has a good chance to also toss multiple touchdown passes. The Chargers’ secondary stinks and Bosa’s absence really hurts the pass rush. Los Angeles has given up almost 3 times as many passing touchdowns (16) as interceptions it has made (6), so this is a great matchup for Jackson.
If the Ravens are going to win by a double-digit margin, Jackson almost certainly has to put up big numbers through the air. As such, I have no qualms about combining these plays.
Access all today’s football content via our NFL Week 12 Betting Guide
