NFL teaser picks and parlay for Wild Card Weekend: Can the 49ers pull off an upset?

Jimmy Garappolo

The NFL playoffs have arrived! We are treated with 3 days of wild-card action, which means we have plenty of options when it comes to betting. One way to spice things up is with some teasers. This article will break down my favorite teaser for Wild Card Weekend, as well as a parlay that I think has a solid chance of hitting. Along with this article, be sure to check out our expert NFL picks for free picks on the side and total of every game this week.

NFL Wild Card Teaser: 2-team, 6-point (-134 at FanDuel)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (from -8.5)

Nothing seems more inevitable in sport than a Tom Brady-led team winning in the postseason. The 44-year-old has recorded 34 playoff wins, 18 more than Joe Montana — who is next best in the all-time individual playoff win standings. Win number 35 is strongly fancied to occur with the sportsbooks making the Bucs the second-biggest favorites of the wild-card round. The strength of the Bucs clearly lies with the offense. Despite some notable injuries, the Bucs still rank 1st in total offense DVOA and scored 30 or more points on 10 occasions in the regular season. Brady is playing as well as he ever has, and he led the league in touchdown passes (43) and passing yards (5,316) this season.

The Eagles are no slouch, though, and covering the 8.5-point spread may be tough for the Buccaneers. The Eagles are 10-1 against the spread in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog, while the Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 wild-card games. That’s why teasing them down to -2.5 makes some sense.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

New England Patriots +10.5 (from +4.5)

Bill Belichick has led the Patriots to an impressive 15-3 ATS record in their last 18 games in Orchard Park. They also played well on the road throughout this year’s regular season, going 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS away from Gillette Stadium. They are getting 4.5 points as the visitors in this one, and teasing New England through the key number of 10 could be worth while.

With this game being outdoors in Buffalo, the weather is likely to be a factor. The forecast for Saturday night in Buffalo is for temperatures in the mid-to-low 20s with 10-15mph wins and a chance of snow. The Pats relied on their consistent running game and strong defense to record a 14-10 win in Buffalo earlier this season. The icy conditions and insanely strong winds limited Buffalo’s air-raid passing attack, and similar conditions could hinder their offensive potential again. In addition, Josh Allen was not great down the stretch. He threw 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in his last 2 games, which came against the Jets and Falcons. The Patriots have a much stronger defensive unit than both of those teams, and Belichick should have a solid game plan in place to give Allen some trouble.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills.

Wild Card Weekend parlay (+749 at FanDuel)

San Francisco 49ers ML (+136)

You can make a case for the San Francisco 49ers being the best team in the NFL over the back half of the season. Since Week 9, they led the league in net yards per play and have a potent passing offense, with 13% of drop backs resulting in an explosive play. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ offense has been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks. Over the first 9 weeks of the season they were 5th in EPA/play, but that has dipped to 9th since Week 10. More specifically, the rushing offense has really taken a dip — dropping from 7th to 26th in rush success rate.

The 49ers defense, which is 1st in EPA/play against the run since Week 9, should be able to control the tempo of this game. That could allow QB Jimmy Garoppolo and a dangerous cast of San Francisco weapons to take advantage of a Dallas defense that is 28th in the NFL in opponent yards per play since Week 9. Don’t be surprised if the 49ers leave Jerry World with a win.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 (-110)

Las Vegas opened as a +6.5 underdog, but that number has been bet down to 5. At this point, the value is on the Bengals. Cincinnati has been inconsistent throughout the season, but in the past few weeks this franchise seems to have really started putting it together. A phenomenal performance against the Ravens was quickly followed by a big win over the Chiefs, and the Bengals looks totally fearless. Joe Burrow is playing incredible football, boasting an outrageous 971 passing yards and 9 touchdowns over his past 2 games. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd are lighting it up at wideout — while Joe Mixon continues to be a reliable running back.

The Raiders can be flimsy on defense, and that was apparent last week when they let Justin Herbert complete 4th down after 4th down. They made the fewest interceptions in the league with just 6 and are tied for allowing the 9th-most passing TDs this season. It could be a long day for Vegas’ defense against a Cincinnati passing attack that is humming.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Las Vegas Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals.

Los Angeles Rams -3.5 (-110)

Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense haven’t always been consistent down the stretch, but you could say the same for Kyler Murray and the Cards. The Rams disappointingly lost to the 49ers in overtime in Week 18, but at least they didn’t give up 38 points in an ugly loss to the Seahawks like Arizona did. The Cards made Russell Wilson look like he’s firmly in his prime instead of the shell of himself he’s looked like for much of this season. In addition, they let Rashaad Penny rush for an absurd 190 yards on them. All while Murray averaged only 6.2 yards per attempt.

Murray quietly hasn’t looked like himself since coming back from his ankle injury. Remember when he was a surefire MVP candidate earlier in the year? When these teams played about a month ago Aaron Donald absolutely dominated, and Murray was sacked 4 times in a loss. And that game was played in Arizona. We’re rolling with the Rams.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams.

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